The Fat Lady Still Isn’t Singing

  by Les May

IN the period between 2* July and 12 August there were 30,041 new infections reported by the government. The average number of infections per day was 733. If the number of new infections was more or less stable we would expect there to be an equal number of days with above the average number of infections in the first half of this period and in the second half of this period. In fact there were just three days with above the average number of infections in the first half 3 July to 22 July. In the second half 24 July to 12 August there were 17 days. The middle day of the period, 23 July, there were above the average number of new infections. The total number of Covid19 deaths in this period was 2395. This figure is almost 8% of the number of new infections reported.*

If the average number of new infections remained at 733 per day, by Christmas we can expect there to be about 96,000 new infections reported in total which may translate into another 7,200 deaths.

The figures above are predicated on an unchanging rate of new infection. But if one compares new infections figures between the first (3 to 22 July) and the second half (24 July to 12 August) it is clear that the average daily rate has changed from 631 to 833. In other words the daily number of new Covid19 infections is rising again.

It is the rate at which the numbers are rising which is important not the actual numbers. So long as the rate of change is in the so called ‘linear phase’ this can be classed as (very) unfortunate; if it enters the so called ‘exponential phase’ this will be a disaster because we will have a rerun of what we experienced in late March and April, and we can kiss goodbye to Christmas.

If we are going to learn to live with the virus and not just watch others die with the virus we need to change what we are doing and become more proactive. Getting rid of the virus, before it gets rid of us, isn’t ‘Boris’s problem’, it’s our problem too.

Doing whatever is necessary to halt Covid19 infections would have another beneficial effect. The methods which are effective in reducing the likelihood of becoming infected against Covid19 are the ones which are effective in reducing the likelihood of becoming infected with Influenza. And we may just need them.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2019-2020/cdc-prepare-swhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_fluine-flu.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

*My choice of start date was not arbitrary, it was the first day of the government’s updated method of reporting new infections and close to the day on which most meeting places were reopened.

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GEORGE ORWELL & SOCIALISM

Saturday 16th, September, 1p.m. at the RED SHED, 

Vicarage Street, Wakefield WF1.

Invites you to

GEORGE ORWELL & SOCIALISM

Speakers:

Brian Bamford*:

(Secretary of Tameside TUC & Secretary of Unite Bury Commercial NW 353 Branch).

Alan Stewart:

(Convenor of  Wakefield Socialist Hisoty Group).

Robin Stocks:

(Author of 'Hidden Heros of Easter Week')

FREE ADMISION.

FREE LIGHT BUFFET

ALL WELCOME. 

*****
 Les Hurst of the George Orwell Society, and Quentin Kopp (the son of George Kopp, George Orwell's POUM commander in Spain) will be attending the GEORGE ORWELL AND SOCIALISM event at the Red Shed. 

Comrades,

*  Brian Bamford (Sec of Tameside TUC and Sec of Bury Unite Commercial Branch) will be one of several speakers at the GEORGE ORWELL AND SOCIALISM event at the Red Shed, Vicarage Street, Wakefield WF1 on Saturday 16th September.   The event starts at 1pm.

The area Brian will be covering in his talk is outlined below.

Fraternally

Alan Stewart

Convenor, Wakefield Socialist History Group

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Prof. Preston and George Orwell: The varieties of historical investigation and experience

A couple of years ago, at a gathering of the International Brigade Memorial Trust, Professor Paul Preston, describing George Orwell’s Homage to Catalonia, said: ‘It is not a bad book but the trouble is, it is the only book many people read on the Spanish Civil War’ or words to that effect. Pro. Preston suggested that ‘Homage to Catalonia’ was a book written about the Spanish War from the narrow perspective of someone who had only spent six or seven months involved in the conflict on a quiet front in the North of Spain – Aragon & Catalonia – and, that it left out much which the professional historian could now encompass supported, as he is, by the enriched ‘body of scholarship which has been published in Spanish, Catalan, English … since 1996’ (see Preface to Preston’s The Spanish Civil War [2006]). Is a modern history, written in a library by a professional historian such as that of Professor Preston’s, to be preferred to a first-hand account of the conflict written almost in the heat of battle, or shortly afterwards? Will not the professional historian and scholar’s account be more objective than that written by the former combatant and novelist? Is not the one clearly superior to the other? If not, how do we judge and value these differing contributions?

Brian Bamford is an ethno-methodologist/sociologist, who formerly worked as a maintenance electrician. He is at present Secretary of Tameside Trade Union Council and Secretary of Bury Unite the Union. He helped to edit the Tameside TUC booklet on the 75th Anniversary of the Spanish Civil War [3rd Edition],...

*****

Unite's Len McCluskey Wins on a Low turn-out

by Brian Bamford

LEN McCluskey, the incumberant, and the favourite to win the election for general secretary of the Unite union, has been re-elected leader.  Yet the victory was much closer than anticipated:
McCluskey won 59,067 votes (45.4%), Gerard Coyne got 53,544 (41.5%) and the rank and file candidate Ian Allinson took 17,143 (13.1%), on a low turnout of just over 12%, the union announced.
The Coyne team was hoping for a high turnout of up to 20% of the membership, which they believed would have ensured a surprise victory.   McCluskey’s vote dropped from 144,570 in 2013 when the turnout was nearly 15%.
As a consequence of these figures the result cannot be seen as a ringing endorsement of the trade unionism or of their influence in British society.  Even among its own membership the Unite union has struggled to interest the members sufficiently to vote for a leader who might cast a shadow over political life.  And if the union leaders cannot even involve their own members in a significant way for such an event as a union election, why indeed should the general public listen to their leaders' deliberations on social or political matters?
It looks like McCluskey has got 60% less of the vote he got in 2013:  144,570 in 2013 down to 59,067 votes in 2017.
Today, The Guardian website reports:
'Coyne’s camp will this weekend take legal advice over unsent and late ballot papers and what they see as a flawed electoral process.
'Coyne, who ran a campaign alleging that McCluskey was misspending members’ money and was too involved in national politics, responded to the result with a statement calling for McCluskey to change the way the union was run.'
Gerard Coyne is now saying:
'The union machine consistently attempted to bully and intimidate me, something that has continued even after the close of polls.'
'Turnout has fallen disastrously. Many members have reported to me that they did not get their ballot paper at all or, if they did, that it arrived literally on the day polls closed and so was useless. This was no vote of confidence, with falling turnout and a halving of Len McCluskey’s previous vote.'
Wil Hutton on The Guardian website on the 9th, April, arguing that the British left is in 'a malaise', wrote;
 'The brutal truth is that trade unions need root-and-branch reinvention to attract new members. Then, from the legitimacy won by having a base of rising membership, they could start to insist on the rewriting of fairer laws that incorporate new forms of collective bargaining and participation and so recast the increasingly high-risk, low-quality character of the British workplace. McCluskey, like the current Labour leadership he so generously but misguidedly backs, is nowhere near thinking through what is needed.'
I have listened to the arguments for McCluskey and they fixate upon his links to the old left, that he once was a supporter of Militant and he once had a job in the docks in Liverpool.  But I believe my branch members - the members of Bury Unite Commercial Branch - were right to nominate Ian Allinson and get him on the ballot paper to open up a debate and deny McCluskey a coronation.  They were right to do that even though Ian Allinson was a rank outsider.  But in the same way and for the same reasons I agree with the economist Wil Hutton, when he writes 'Coyne is at least attempting to open up the debate about how Unite can grow. The union has an income of £170m; Coyne calls for more transparency in how this money is spent, disputing sweetheart deals backing Jeremy Corbyn'.
It is also clear for anyone who gives the matter any serious thought, that Wil Hutton is right when he argues: 'McCluskey, Corbyn, John McDonnell and the leaders of Momentum are not moving beyond slogans and their preoccupation is less with winning power than hard wiring ancient and outmoded left positions into union and party policies that turn Labour into an unelectable social movement.'
It is not that the old British left is too radical, it is that they are too conservative.  The minds of these men McCluskey, Corbyn and McDonnell are the minds of men who have gramaphone records for brains whose needles have become stuck.  Such men are inadequately placed to solve the current social and political problems.

Bullying, Positive Behaviour & Culture

ALMOST a year ago, a report was disclosed to the Bury Times that claimed one in ten council staff at Bury MBC had been bullied in the last 18-months up to March 2016, and a quarter felt unable to cope with their work demands.
Last Monday (23rd, January 2017), a body entitling itself the Positive Behaviour Task Force met to consider the situation.
The Bury Positive Behaviour Task Force is in theory composed of representatives of the unions UNISON and Unite the Union, as well as representatives of management and HR (Human Relations).  Initially the Unite union which is the biggest union at Bradley Fold Waste Depot, was not invited to participate on this Task Force, more recently however, after complaints from the Unite Commercial Branch, a full time officer was incorporated onto the Task Force but has yet to attend.
In a response to a question about the level of alleged bullying up to March last year a Council spokesperson said:  'The Council takes any allegations of bullying and harassment very seriously and we place the utmost importance on dignity and respect for all our employees... (I)n response to this question 26 Dignity at Work complaints have been investigated in the past three years (6 since April 2015) and there have been 18 cases which have been handled via the mediation route (4 since April 2015).'
The spokesperson then added:
'In terms of taking action, a positive action taskforce has been established along with an Employee focus group to make our policies work effectively on the ground in practice.  We have a further survey planned for the autumn which will be anonymous as are all of the staff surveys we carry.'*
Speaking to the Bury Times (2nd, March 2016), Labour Councillor, Sandra Walmsley, said:
'I don't think there is a culture problem at the council with bullying.  If that was the case, we would have known about it before the survey.... I am hoping the taskforce will get to the bottom of this issue.'
At Bradley Fold Waste Depot there has been various complaints of forms of harassment over the last decade or so, yet at the time of writing the Unite union which represents the bin-men has not had an update or as yet seen any of the minutes of the meetings of the Positive Behaviour Task Force.  Nor, as yet, has the Bury Unite Commercial Branch representing the Bury bin-men seen the results of the 'further survey planned for the autumn (2016)' promised by Bury MBC.
This must be troubling.  
*  https://councildecisions.bury.gov.uk/documents/.../Questions%20responses%20web.p

Cut the Crap of a Unite Coronation!

No to elitism & top-down trade unionism!
from an Ian Allinson e-mail - headline & sub-title northern voices

THE shortened nomination period, along with the unexpected election, is a key part of how this was intended to be a coronation rather than a contest.  We've now had one week of the five weeks for nominations.
Our arguments are being very well received in workplaces and at hustings. I've posted some tips if your branch or workplace wants to organise a hustings.
Thanks to London GEMS, South Croydon Arriva bus, Tyneside Engineering, Coventry & Warwickshire Tom Mann, Bury commercial and SCA Prudhoe branches that have told me they have nominated me so far.
Six is a good start, but we'll need to up the pace if we're to be sure of being on the ballot paper.  We have to assume that the union will find ways to rule out a fair proportion of our nominations, so have to aim well above the 50.  The other candidates have lavishly funded campaign machines - we're relying on ourselves to fight for every nomination and to ensure members can decide the future of our union based on the issues, not on who has rich and powerful backers.
If you win a nomination at your meeting, please let me know right away and make sure all the paperwork is sent off accurately and promptly.  Branches can do this online, which goes directly to ERS and avoids the possibility of Unite mislaying your nomination.
Bury Commercial branch contacted local press following their nomination and got some coverage, which all helps make members aware of the campaign.  The Tom Mann branch decided to donate to the costs campaign.
Don't forget that as well as branch nominations, every workplace can also make a nomination, unless it is in a branch covering just that one workplace.  Full details of how to nominate me are here. Nominations at workplaces are just as important as branches.  They may not be able to contribute financially, but workplace meetings often involve more / different members than branch meetings.
Please let me know:

• Where and when your nominating meeting is
• If you'd like me or a representative to come and speak at your meeting or to visit your workplace - please give me as much detail as possible
• If you'd like some leaflets, how many you'd like and where to send them to

If you support the campaign, please make sure you've left your details here. Let me know what you're doing and how it's going.
This week I've posted new material on www.ian4unite.org on sexism, bullying and harassment in Unite, and on the arguments around Trident, partnership and diversification - I'm the only candidate clearly opposed to Trident. The web site also carries my campaign pledges, many of which link to articles with a more detailed explanation. These are copied below.
There's no let up in the pressure from employers and government, so we can afford no let up in our campaign. More of the same isn't good enough!

Solidarity

Ian.

www.iansunitesite.org.uk

www.leftfutures.org/2016/12/unite-general-secretary-election-who-is-ian-allinson

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38340128

https://www.facebook.com 

  https://twitter.com/IanAllinson

https://www.theguardian.com  

www.ian4unite.org

https://socialistworker.co.uk/.../Why+I+am+standing+for+Unite+leader+++Fujitsu+stri..

Ian's pledges

Communication, participation and a bottom-up union

• Champion lay member democracy and participation, don't undermine it.
• Fortnightly email bulletins direct to all activists, not filtered through officers and committees.
• Support members being able to elect the officers who represent us. Not only would this increase accountability, it would reduce the power of patronage and the climate of fear in the union.
• Tackle the non-functioning branches that deny members a voice and access to resources.
• Oppose the exclusion of community and retired members from participation in Unite structures.
• I'd keep my current wage, not the inflated General Secretary salary, to avoid giving the hostile media ammunition against us.

A stronger union, fit for the future

• Involve members, officers and staff in a major review of Unite's structures to make them fit for purpose in the 21st century. Shift resources and power away from regions to better support the vast majority of Unite workplaces that are in employers spanning multiple regions. Improve support for company and sub-sector combine committees.
• Encourage a spirit of experimentation in organising. Documents and publicise case studies of lessons from members’ organising and campaigning efforts and successes. We spend too much effort trying to reinvent the wheel.
• A flexible facility for levies for strike funds etc, not restricted to where all members are in workplace branches.
• Access to a Dispute Unit for all disputes from an early stage. All members in dispute should feel like they have a million members behind them, not be left to fend for themselves.
• Expand the lay companion scheme to involve more members (including those not in paid work) and free up officer time from casework.
• Overhaul education, which is essential for organising and changing the union's culture, in the light of funding cuts, and ensure fair treatment for our tutors.
• Build on our organising success by increasing lay member involvement.

 Equality and young members' issues in our industrial agenda, not an optional extra

• Champion workers' rights to move freely and be treated equally wherever we go. No concessions to racism or nationalism.
• Integrate our equality and young members work better into our industrial agenda.
• Tackle bullying and sexual harassment, including within our own union (also see report).

 Campaign now: backing Corbyn shouldn't mean waiting for him

• Extend Unite's support for Jeremy Corbyn, not only through Unite's role inside the Labour Party, but by grass roots campaigning and action which can win people over. Stop undermining him on key policies and calling his leadership into question.

 Fight for workers' rights, don't tail our employers' agendas

• Organise regional conferences bringing together campaigns for civil liberties and against state repression, so that our opposition to anti-union legislation stops being isolated and ineffective.
• Challenge the culture of partnership - we are not "all in it together". Post-Brexit Unite should be prioritising defence of workers' rights, not tailing employers' demands for free trade or protectionism.
• Support a million climate jobs, not costly and destructive vanity projects like Trident, HS2, Heathrow expansion and Hinkley Point. Proactively fight for diversification to protect members whose jobs will be affected by changes such as climate change, changes in defence policy and automation. Call a conference of defence workers, the defence teams from Labour and the SNP, and experts on diversification.
• Investigate the role of union officials in blacklisting members. Officially extend every assistance to the Blacklist Support Group in rooting out collusion and backdoor deals with the employers.

--

For more information on the campaign, see http://www.ian4unite.org, https://twitter.com/ian4unite and https://www.facebook.com/ian4unite/. To donate to the campaign, see https://donorbox.org/ian4unite
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Bury Binmen back Ian Allinson in Unite's Top Job

YESTERDAY afternoon, a Bury Unite Commercial Branch meeting of mostly binmen in the Queen's Hotel on Bradley Lane, became one of the first Unite Branches to nominate Manchester lad, Ian Allinson, for the next General Secretary of Unite the Union. 
In putting forward Mr. Allinson for the Bury branch's nomination the Branch Secretary, Brian Bamford, said that he was not so keen on 'coronations' in matters of political or union issues, and that he felt that it was important that the Unite membership get as wide a choice as possible to lead them. 
Mr. Bamford made it clear that while he respected the current leader Len McCluskey he did not think it was healthy for the union to have a narrow choice of candidates. 
There was some debate about if by putting Ian Allinson on the ballot paper the Bury Branch would be splitting the so-called 'left-vote', and one or two people at the meeting said 'Who's heard of Ian Allison outside of Manchester?'
Someone else claimed that Len McCluskey was a well-established experienced officer, and Mr. Allinson was a new boy on the block, so wouldn't it be better to support someone more knowledgeable?
In response it was then argued that many people hadn't heard of Jeremy Corbyn before he was elected as the Labour leader.  Others thought that some officers spend too long in office, and thereby lose contact with the rank and file membership.  Ian Allison, who is a convenor at Fujitsu in Manchester, is not a paid official.
The only other candidate for the General Secretary's job, Gerard Coyne, is a Unite regional officer in the Midlands.
After considering the proposals of all three candidates the meeting voted unanimously to nominate to nominate Ian Allinson for General Secretary.
For more go to:
www.iansunitesite.org.uk/

Some Consequences of Bin Collection Cuts

Letter to the Rochdale Observer; published 2nd, April 2016:

28th, March 2016.

 

Dear Editor,

 

The news that the number of bin complaints in Rochdale have nearly doubled in the three months since three-weekly bin collections began last October, ought not to come as a surprise (see Rochdale Ob. Sat. 26^th, March 2016).    Over a year ago my Bury Unite Commercial Branch predicted that there would be an increased in missed bins owing to overflowing bins with raised bin lids, and that there would be rise in side waste and fly-tipping. 

 

This kind of thing is happening throughout Greater Manchester; two weeks ago in the Heywood Advertiser (10^th, March 2016) there were reports of residents calling for a ‘clampdown’ on fly-tipping in Heywood , and in the Bury Times earlier this year there was coverage of a Freedom of Information request from me which showed that complaints about vermin in Bury had increased by 18.16% in the first year of three-weekly collections by Bury MBC up to November 2015.  Bury MBC being the pioneer council in cutting bin collections of non-recyclable material.

 

In Bury, the council has blamed the public for failing to dispose of their rubbish properly, but at a full Rochdale council meeting earlier this year Councillor Peter Rush complained that the public were slow at grasping the process of recycling, and that he hoped that the younger generation would educate their parents in good environmental practice.   Despite these troubles the Rochdale Council bosses are still claiming '[t]he new bin collection service has been a great success'.

 

Yours sincerely,

Brian Bamford:  Secretary of Bury Unite Commercial Branch North West 353.