Don’t You Know There’s A War On? by Les May

I LIVE in Rochdale which is included in the Greater Manchester ‘Local Lockdown’. Last Friday a friend of mine, who like me is in the ‘vulnerable’ age group, met up for a chat with three friends in a Rochdale town centre pub. When I asked him next morning if people from four households meeting up fell within the recommendations; he said he did not know. I couldn’t be of any help because, like him, I am confused, though common sense says no. The day after another friend in the same age group visited Clitheroe with her daughter. Does it fall within the guidelines? No idea! And it’s not just individuals like me who are confused. Two weeks ago another friend in the same age group had to briefly visit the Rochdale Council offices at ‘The Fashion Corner’. Prominently displayed was a notice about ‘Track and Trace’. That didn’t mean whoever was behind the desk knew what to do. She was heard to ask whether my friend’s contact details should be recorded.

A few nights ago an Oldham cafe owner was interviewed for a local news programme after further restrictions were announced. He pleaded for some clarity about exactly what these further restrictions were. A couple of days later the Labour leader of Pendle Council said in an interview that he would have to apply further restrictions, but that neither he nor the police who would have to enforce them, had been informed by the government what they were.

Nor is it clear that all supermarkets are being proactive in insisting upon masks being worn in store thought this is supposedly mandatory in areas with a local lockdown. It’s a similar picture on buses and trains. The excuse being given at one large supermarket is that staff do not have the power to refuse entry, only the police have that power. I suggest the real reason is that supermarkets and transport providers fear confronting people who insist upon behaving in an anti-social manner by not wearing a mask. Again lack of clarity about what is mandatory is at the root of the problem.

Today it was announced that following WHO guidelines children in secondary schools in areas subject to a local lockdown would have to wear masks. It was also announced that the the government would NOT be following WHO guidelines which recommend that all teachers over 60, that’s about 2% of all teachers, and teachers who are pregnant should wear ‘medical grade’ masks. Outside these areas headteachers can decide on whether masks should be used. This is a decision ripe for conflict as many teachers may decide they are being told to work under unsafe conditions. Tomorrow of course the rules may change. Boris hasn’t yet learned you cannot please everyone all the time.

Since 3 July the average number of new cases of Covid19 has risen from 631 in the first half to 833 from mid July to early August and now to 1077 mid to late August. Since 2 July there have been nearly 42,000 new cases reported to 23 August. The explanation offered for this rise is that it is because more tests are being carried out; a.k.a ‘The Trump Excuse’. This is plausible in the case of the change in average new infections between the first and second period, 28% more tests against 32% increase in the average daily rate, but it is not plausible as an explanation for a rise between the second and third periods of 0.15% rise in the number of tests, averaged over a seven day period, being accompanied by a 29% rise in the average daily rate of infection.

The data upon which I based my calculations can be found at: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

I’ve not yet spoken to any of the people I know who can tell me what they are aware that Rochdale Council has done during this period of ‘local lockdown’ to play its part in breaking transmission of the virus. Since 30 July when this period began the only thing I have been aware of is a TV interview with council leader Brett and an A5 leaflet from RMBC which popped through my door. This is against a background of a seemingly ever changing and vague set of rules/guidelines/recommendations from Boris et al.

When I was a child polio was the disease that parents dreaded which is why it was called ‘Infantile Paralysis’. A safe and effective vaccine has reduced the number of cases reported annually to less than 100 throughout the world. The virus which causes Covid 19 disease is going to be with us for the foreseeable future. We will only beat it when we have an effective vaccine and/or an effective cure. Until then the only thing we can do is adjust our behaviour to minimise the risk of transmission. Adjusting our behaviour means being in contact with as few people as possible, physically distancing ourselves from those we do meet, wearing a mask that covers our mouth and nose to prevent passing on the virus by coughing or via spittle when talking, and being scrupulously careful to wash or sanitise our hands after touching surfaces which might be carrying to virus.

These are irksome things to do for most of us. We’ve a devil dancing on our shoulder telling us to just get on with our lives. We need constant reminders as to why these things are important. It’s got to be Education, Education, Education! And this is where I think Rochdale Council has failed miserably because it is ‘just going through the motions’. Where are the large notices on every lamp post and every shop window and every billboard, reminding people of what they need to do to beat the virus? Non-existent so far as I can tell. Is anyone visiting local supermarkets and shops to remind them of their responsibility? My local corner shop certainly needs a visit. Is anyone liaising with the police to make sure the local rules are being followed?

There’s an old saying that ‘the best manure is the farmers boot’: Are you listening Mr Brett?

The Fat Lady Still Isn’t Singing

  by Les May

IN the period between 2* July and 12 August there were 30,041 new infections reported by the government. The average number of infections per day was 733. If the number of new infections was more or less stable we would expect there to be an equal number of days with above the average number of infections in the first half of this period and in the second half of this period. In fact there were just three days with above the average number of infections in the first half 3 July to 22 July. In the second half 24 July to 12 August there were 17 days. The middle day of the period, 23 July, there were above the average number of new infections. The total number of Covid19 deaths in this period was 2395. This figure is almost 8% of the number of new infections reported.*

If the average number of new infections remained at 733 per day, by Christmas we can expect there to be about 96,000 new infections reported in total which may translate into another 7,200 deaths.

The figures above are predicated on an unchanging rate of new infection. But if one compares new infections figures between the first (3 to 22 July) and the second half (24 July to 12 August) it is clear that the average daily rate has changed from 631 to 833. In other words the daily number of new Covid19 infections is rising again.

It is the rate at which the numbers are rising which is important not the actual numbers. So long as the rate of change is in the so called ‘linear phase’ this can be classed as (very) unfortunate; if it enters the so called ‘exponential phase’ this will be a disaster because we will have a rerun of what we experienced in late March and April, and we can kiss goodbye to Christmas.

If we are going to learn to live with the virus and not just watch others die with the virus we need to change what we are doing and become more proactive. Getting rid of the virus, before it gets rid of us, isn’t ‘Boris’s problem’, it’s our problem too.

Doing whatever is necessary to halt Covid19 infections would have another beneficial effect. The methods which are effective in reducing the likelihood of becoming infected against Covid19 are the ones which are effective in reducing the likelihood of becoming infected with Influenza. And we may just need them.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2019-2020/cdc-prepare-swhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_fluine-flu.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

*My choice of start date was not arbitrary, it was the first day of the government’s updated method of reporting new infections and close to the day on which most meeting places were reopened.

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How We Can Keep the ‘r’ As Low As Possible?

by Les May

WHILST talking on Sky News about the rallies being held in London today the presenter managed to convey the impression, inadvertently I hope, that we should vary our behaviour in accordance with the ‘r’ number, the average number of people that a person infected with the virus causing Covid 19 will themselves go on to infect.

This is a classic case of ‘putting the cart before the horse’ because it is OUR behaviour which will influence the ‘r’ value.  It is what WE do which will determine whether the number of infections will continue to fall or grows exponentially.  Exponential growth will follow even if the ‘r’ number only just creeps above 1.0.

For example if the ‘r’ number is only very slightly higher at 1.01 over a period of two months 1,000 infected people will result in more than eleven thousand new infections, but if it is very slightly lower at 0.99 the number of new infections each week will decline. If you have difficulty in appreciating how small is the difference between these two numbers think of having 99p in your pocket and having £1.01p.  Smaller ‘r’ values will result in fewer new infections and a more rapid decline in the numbers.  In the north-west of England we are balanced on such a knife edge because the ‘r’ value is estimated to be about 1.01.

Based on an analysis of about 20,000 people in 9,000 households it is estimated that in the two week period 17-30^th May, one in one thousand people (0.1%) in the non-hospitalised population were infected with the virus and potentially able to infect others.   In the previous fourteen day period 3-16^th May the estimate was 0.25% of the population.  We can interpret these figures to mean that if we meet one thousand people we can expect at least one of them to be infectious. But there is a ‘gotcha’ in viewing it like this.  We do not know if the infected person will be the first, second…. person we meet, or if we are that one infected person.

Keeping the ‘r’ number below 1.0, and preferably well below this figure, is a job for us. It cannot be palmed off onto Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings, Matt Hancock or anyone else, as someone who was billed as the shadow minister for health tried to imply in an interview with Sky News.

So what can we do to get and keep the reinfection rate below 1.0? Quite a lot if few are willing to make the effort. For the moment ‘making the effort’ means

not just sanitising hands and surfaces regularly, but also ensuring that we meet up with as few people as possible. That means anyone who we do not share a house with. If we are forced to come into contact with people we don’t live with then we can physically distance ourselves from them so that any spittle that comes from the mouth as they talk will not land on us and we can avoid eating, drinking or sharing utensils with them. Just in case we are the ‘one in a thousand’ who is infected and shedding virus particles we can wear a face covering. Even a home made mask will be effective in preventing your spittle reaching anyone nearby.  To steal a phrase I first heard used by the biologist Jared Diamond, we need to behave with ‘constructive paranoia’ in mind.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-to-make-cloth-face-covering.html

Step by step instructions for making a cloth face mask can be found here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-to-make-cloth-face-covering.html

The survey results for 17-30^th May, and earlier, can be found at:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

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