COVID-19: 'SCIENCE ON TRIAL' ?

THIAGO CARVALHO* in this weekend's Financial Times asks: 'So what have we learned about the limits of science? First, we were reminded that spectacular successes are built on a foundation of decades of basic research. Even the novel, first-in-class vaccines are at the end of a long road. It was slow-going to get to warp speed. We learned that there are no shortcuts to deciphering how a new virus makes us sick (and kills us) and that there is no ignoring the importance of human diversity for cracking this code. Diabetes, obesity, hypertension - we are still finding our way through a comorbidity labyrinth. Most of all, we have learned an old lesson again: science is the art of the soluable. No amount of resorces and personnel, no Manhattan Project, can ensure that science will solve a problem in the absence of a well-stocked toolbox and a solid, painstaking built theoretical framework.'

He reminds us: 'South Korea recorded its first Covid-19 case on January 20. Eleven days later, Spain confirmed its first infection: a German tourist in the Canary Islands. Spain and South Korea have similar populations of about 50m people. As of ublication of this piece, South Korea has had 879 deaths, while Spain reports over 50,000. The west missed its moment.'

* The writer is an immunologist at the Champalimaud Foundation, Lisbon.

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Test, Trace, Track, Isolate. Then What?

by Les May

I’M REASONABLY sure that the government will some day manage to get a system for testing, tracing, tracking and isolating of people suffering from Covid-19 working.  Probably not as well or as quickly as it has led us to believe, and probably relying on good old ‘shoe leather’ tracing more than the wonderful ‘app’ in which so much faith has been placed, but eventually.

This approach has been successful in South Korea where nationals face up to one year in jail and a fine of 10 million won (nearly £7000) with up to three years in jail and a fine of 20 million won for foreigners, if they fail to quarantine themselves for fourteen days.  Those coming to the UK will be told to isolate themselves for fourteen days with a penalty of £1,000 for those who fail to do so. There will be much smaller fines for residents.

But there seems to be one difference between the way the authorities in South Korea approach this and the way the UK government seem to be doing.  In South Korea those told to quarantine can expect visits to check that they are where they should be, which we are told will happen here, but in South Korea they also have food delivered to their door.

Since late March the advice has been that households where someone has Covid-19 should isolate for fourteen days.  This could become 28 days for some people if someone they live with only becomes symptomatic at the end of the isolation period.

If we are to learn to live with this virus isolation will continue to be an important part of the strategy and it may be required of some individuals more than once. People are more likely to do this if they can be sure that they will not have to worry about feeding themselves.  I’ve not heard anyone speaking for the government say that some thought has been given to the problem of how those who are in home quarantine will feed themselves.  These are practical problems and they need practical answers.  Why not involve local councils and ask them to set up a scheme appropriate to local needs?

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Understanding Social Distancing Isn’t Rocket Science

by Les May

LAST week the Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, announced that for the time being the jury system for trials would be suspended and that for an indeterminate period trials would be conducted in the absence of a jury and the presiding judge alone would decide the innocence or guilt of the accused.

Sturgeon rescinded her decision after protests from the Scottish Judiciary and members of her own party.

South Korea was very successful in limiting the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus which is the causal agent of the disease Covid19.  This was done by first identifying those suffering the disease and then tracking the whereabouts of those they had been in contact with by locating their mobile phone.  This is possible because as people move around their phone automatically latches onto the mast transmitter with the strongest signal and vice versa.  The technology is the same as that used by the Dutch to determine that the missile used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was moved from Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

Germany has been using similar technology as part of its strategy for limiting the spread of the virus.

Trial by jury is the cornerstone of the English and Scottish legal system and the implications for civil liberties of suspending it, potentially indefinitely, are obvious, which is why suspension was roundly condemned.

It may be possible to justify tracking people using their mobile phone signal in order to limit the spread of a deadly virus.  How do we ensure that its use will be discontinued after the pandemic is over?  If we cannot, there are clear implications for civil liberties.

These are serious issues and deserve serious consideration and debate.  They are not getting it.   Instead we have whingeing about examples of heavy handed policing and nit picking about what the word ‘unwisely’ might be interpreted to mean.

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/whinge

During the afternoon today the couple who live in the house behind me invited someone round for a friendly drink.  Unwise?  Yes!  By being in the company of a third person they were increasing the probability of introducing the virus into their household.  Conversely she was running the risk of catching it from them. Infected people show no symptoms for three to five days initially and are shedding virus particles throughout this time.  There’s no certainty in any of this.  Social distancing is a matter of reducing the probability that in any encounter one or other of the participants will be infected with the virus and pass it on to someone else.  Ignoring it is anti-social.

It’s not ‘rocket science’ to understand that if each infected person on average passes the virus to more than one person, the number of people infected will increase.  If on average they pass it on to just one person the number of people infected will remain constant and if they pass it on to less than one person the number of infections will decline to zero.

Scotland’s chief medical officer Catherine Calderwood does stupid things does not mean the rest of us have to do the same.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/05/scotland-chief-medical-officer-seen-flouting-lockdown-advice-catherine-calderwood

You might get a chuckle out of this link, but notice how readily she falls into the same trap of identity politics herself.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/31/identity-politics-has-never-been-more-irrelevant/

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