Monday, 13 June 2016

Fear of 'Brexit' has led to £77bn of capital leaving the UK in last six months, says Bank of England!

We are publishing below extracts from the 'Monday Briefing' by Ian Stewart, Chief Economist, at Deloitte UK:

Brexit and European politics

* The "What the UK Thinks: EU Poll of Polls", based on the average share of the vote for 'Leave' and 'Remain' in the six most recent polls carried out between 1st June and 10th June shows Remain and Leave tied on 50% (adjusting for the removal of "don't knows")
* According to the latest political betting odds cited by PaddyPower, there is a 33% implied probability of a Brexit vote – with a probability of an exit up for the second consecutive week
* Lord Hayward, a prominent Conservative election pollster and Remain supporter, claimed the EU referendum polls "have got it wrong" and are systematically overestimating support for Remain; saying that "the balance of probability is that the nation will vote to Leave."
* A poll by ORB found a ten percentage point lead for Leave among online respondents - by far the largest recorded support for Leave since ORB began polling on the issue
* Sterling fell sharply against major currencies following a number of polls that suggested a lead for Leave in the referendum campaign, with the one-month implied volatility of the currency rising to its highest levels since Lehman brothers collapsed
* Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, ruled out the possibility of the UK following a Swiss or Norwegian model that would allow it to enjoy the benefits of the single market without being an EU member, saying in an interview that "In is In. Out is Out.

* The Pew Research Centre has found a sharp decline in European support for the EU and its institutions, with just 51% of Europeans across the 10 member states polled now having a favourable view of the EU
* Lord Bamford, the chairman of industrial equipment firm JCB, wrote a letter to his 6,500 UK employees to explain why he favours a vote to leave the EU, saying that he was "very confident that we can stand on our own two feet."
* The FT reports that a number of British high-street banks are preparing for how to operate in a post-Brexit Britain, with some banks training staff on how to reassure confused customers enquiring about subjects from mortgage costs to exchanging foreign currency for holidays
* Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence party, said that a British vote to leave the EU would be the "first domino" in what he hopes would be the disintegration and "disappearing" of the rest of the union
* Figures from the Bank of England suggest £77bn of capital left the UK in the six months to the end of April, compared to just £2bn in the six months to the end of October 2015, with Chancellor George Osborne claiming this capital flight is a "taste of things to come" if we vote to leave the EU 
* The deputy mayor of Paris claimed the French capital "will be rolling out the red carpet" to welcome bankers from the City of London in the event of a Brexit vote – with France launching a "Welcome to Europe" campaign to attract financiers to the city
* The Guardian reports that major City firms are preparing teams for a long night in the office on June 23rd, to respond to customer queries and exit polls that could trigger sharp swings in foreign exchange and bond markets 
* Lord Astor, the father-in-law of David Cameron, claimed that MPs would not allow the UK to leave the EU in the event of a Brexit vote in the referendum – citing the fact that "The EU referendum is merely advisory; it has no legal standing to force an exit. Parliament is still sovereign."
* Benoît Cœuré, one of the ECB's executive board members, stated that the central bank stands ready to take special measures to ensure markets continue to function after a potential Brexit vote

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