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The Tories will be hoping to take a seat held by Labour since 1997
By Alexandra Rogers on YORKSHIRE LIVE website - 1 JUN 2021
When the Tories talk about how tough the Batley by election is going to be for the party to win, it probably isn't solely a lesson in expectations management - for once.
Batley and Spen is a highly unpredictable contest for the Conservatives, as pollsters and psephologists know despite its erroneous categorisation as a "Red Wall" seat that now forms the Tories' stomping ground.
One such expert is James Johnson, a private pollster at JL Partners who, as a former adviser to Theresa May while she was prime minister, knows all about how the party will target Batley and Spen.
Mr Johnson describes the West Yorkshire constituency as "Red Wall 2.0 - that next tier of Labour held seats... that could go Conservative".
What separates Batley from Hartlepool, where the Tories pulled of a resounding victory earlier this month, is that the Brexit party vote share in the 2019 general election was low by comparison.
In Hartlepool, it accounted for 25 per cent of the vote share. Naturally, what happened in that by election was votes transferred from the Brexit party to the Conservatives to allow the party to cross the finish line.
"One of the reasons Batley didn't fall in 2019 and is 2.0 rather than 1.0 is because it doesn't have quite as a high a Brexit party vote share, it has more people from different ethnic groups rather than people from white British backgrounds, and it is in an area that is more suspicious perhaps of the Conservatives," Mr Johnson explains.
It's in the second tier which is a much harder challenge for the Conservatives."
National issues such as the success of the vaccine rollout and the appeal of Boris Johnson will undoubtedly help the Tories, but Mr Johnson's message to the party if they want to win is "get local".
"Everything will be informed by research on the ground," he says.
"In Hartlepool, you saw such a focus on jobs in the area and on Ben Houchen, because their research was telling them that they would like more jobs in the area and that people liked Ben Houchen.
"The Tories will emphasise jobs and investment, there will be reference to the vaccine rollout and we'll probably see this message about voting for change - really positioning the Conservatives as the change candidate to residents who feel like Labour have represented them for a long time but not done much for them."
The 'get local' message might have been missed by the Tories, who have selected Ryan Stephenson, a Leeds councillor and chair of the West Yorkshire Conservatives as its candidate.
Some may believe the importance of having a local candidate has been exaggerated, but Mr Johnson is not one of them.
"The unspoken rule for successful by-elections is you are helped enormously by having a local candidate," he says.
"And that was actually one of the problems for both parties in Hartlepool. There was a lot of kick back that neither candidate was not from the area - the Labour candidate was seen as second-hand goods from Stockton and the Conservative candidate was from North Yorkshire.
"If we're in a situation where one candidate is local and one candidate isn't, that is a real advantage to whoever has got that local candidate."
Labour too faces a battle to retain Batley and Spen, where its majority has declined to number just 3,525 votes going into this election. Their difficulties could well translate into success for the Tories.
The Conservatives face one main threat in Mr Halloran, while the Labour party faces several: the Liberal Democrats, the Green party and of course, leftwing firebrand and party exile George Galloway.
"If Labour are losing votes to the Lib Dems of Greens, who had a good showing in the locals, or if Labour are losing votes to a a George Galloway candidacy, then that is going to be difficult for Labour," Mr Johnson says.
"Even if a Lib Dem or Green candidate isn't particularly good, or out there or visible, their very presence on the ballot paper does take away votes - we saw this in the 2019 general election where actually, some of the Lib Dems weren't actually campaigning that much."
Regarding George Galloway, Mr Johnson says: "Lots of people are very fed up.
"A big reason why people voted Conservative in Hartlepool was because they were fed up with the status quo and wanted a change.
"It is very easy to see George Galloway becoming that person for people who don't like Labour but don't want to vote Conservative. Although he didn't do particularly well in Scotland where he last stood, he is noisy, he is on the ground and he also puts a lot of effort in - he doesn't just sit back and pop up and do a few visits, he really goes for it.
"And he doesn't need to take that many votes from Labour to cause a problem. It really could be just a matter of a couple of thousand of votes and you would see it coming perilously close for Labour."
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I’VE never bought into the idea that Labour losing last year’s General Election was because a Corbyn led government’s policies made it ‘unelectable’. I think a more plausible explanation is that Labour’s so called ‘Red Wall’ crumbled because those voters wanted ‘Brexit’ and knew that Johnson would deliver it, but Corbyn couldn’t be guaranteed to. The intervention of a Brexit party candidate in my constituency effectively helped to defeat Labour.
Those who voted Tory at the last election came from two ‘tribes’, each of which spoke their own language, had their own values and were incomprehensible to each other. One was the tribe which always voted Tory; the other was the tribe made up of those who usually voted Labour, or not at all, but who for their own reasons simply wanted to leave the EU.
Britain will leave the EU on the last day of the year. Job done! Why vote Tory next time? Boris Johnson knows this, that’s why he is so eager to push his ‘levelling up’ agenda which seems to me no more than a rebranding of the old ‘trickle down’ economics of Margaret Thatcher.
Donald Trump’s sojourn at the White House came about because two ‘tribes’, incomprehensible to each other, put him there in 2016. One tribe was drawn from Americans whose livelihoods were threatened because the industries they worked for were losing ground to cheaper foreign imports or were simply past their sell by dates like coal production, the inhabitants of the so called ‘rust bucket states’. The other tribe was composed of socially conservative, for which read abhors homosexuals, same sex marriage and abortion, devout, Bible immersed, fundamentalist Christians. Trump knew exactly what he was doing selecting Mike Pence to be his Vice-President. Pence is the real deal. At the end of the first meeting between the two he suggested they hold hands for a short prayer.
Trump now faces the same problem as Boris Johnson. He’s delivered a Supreme Court bench with a built in conservative majority which could last for the next thirty or forty years which his Bible bashing supporters can reasonably expect to deliver the sort of socially conservative rulings they want to hear. Job done! Why vote for an ersatz vulgarian like Donald Trump when you can have the real deal in the shape of someone like Pence in four years time?
The smart money is on Trump still being a major force in the Republican party in the next four years. I’m not so sure.
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