Poll says Labour win in Heywood & Middleton

THE first POLL by The Sun in the Heywood & Middleton constiency of the former MP Jim Dobbin suggests that Labour will win, but that Ukip will come second.

The full figures are:
Labour 50% (Up 10% on 2010)
Ukip 31% (Up 28%)
Conservative 13% (Down 14%)
Lib Dems 4% (Down 19%)

The one worry for Labour is that 19 percent of voters have not yet made up their minds. The Ukip figure also shows an enormous leap from the 2.6 percent which Ukip recorded in 2010. The poll suggests that 35 percent of Ukip’s support comes from Labour, and 33 percent from the Tories.
Polls in by-elections often affect the dynamics of the campaign, and build up momentum for a challenging party. While Ukip may succeed in further squeezing the Conservative share of the vote, it is hard to see how, in the remaining seven days, Nigel Farage’s party can bridge the 19 percent gap suggested by the Survation polling figures for The Sun.

In recent days, according to a senior Ukip source, the party has redirected some of its resources away from the Clacton by-election and towards the Lancashire seat, in the hope that it can pull off a shock double defeat for the two main parties.

- See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/byelection-bacon-butty-battle-heywood-middleton/4443#sthash.X3WULnqU.dpuf