Saturday 11 April 2020

Why We Should Be China Centric


by Les May

WRITING on the Conservative Home blog Damian Green MP has said The World Health Organisation, as the Coronavirus crisis has developed, has seemed to be completely indulgent towards the Chinese authorities while being ever-ready (as they should be) to criticise other governments, and that the Chinese authorities were ‘dilatory in informing the WHO about the outbreak’.


Green’s claims seem to be written more from prejudice than a quest for accuracy. This is what the Al Jazeera news channel has to say.

On December 31 last year, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people.  The virus was unknown.’


And the WHO tends to confirm this.


The full genetic sequence of the new virus, essential for the development of a test for infection by the virus, was released on 5 January 2020 based on a sample swab taken from a patient in December 2018 (probably 26 December)

You will note that at that time it was referred to as the Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus’ which is unsurprising as it was previously and unknown virus.



This points to doctors and researchers in China being initially mystified by the new illness and working to find out more about it, rather than to ‘dilatoriness’.  As for the WHO being ‘indulgent’ to China I’m not sure what Green has in mind.

Green of course is not the only politician to blame China for the ongoing pandemic, Donald Trump initially adopted a similar stance but now seems to have chosen to direct his ire at the WHO for ‘Calling it wrong’, which is a bit rich coming from a man who takes no notice of anyone who actually knows what they are talking about.

I take a different view. For 76 days after 23 January China conducted a massive experiment on its own population at no cost to us or the rest of the world.  To tackle the Covid19 pandemic it introduced what has come to be known as a ‘lockdown’ instructing the residents of Wuhan not to leave their homes. As this seemed to be effective in reducing the infection rate other countries introduced similar measures. Having reduced the number of person to person transmission of the virus to a very low level, China is now conducting a second experiment by a phased lifting the restrictions on the population, again at no cost to us or anyone else in the world.  They are experimenting with one possible ‘Exit Strategy’. We should be watching what is happening in China in the next few weeks very carefully to see if it works.


Thankfully we have not emulated China’s methods of imposing a 76 day lockdown.  But there is the dilemma.  The more complete the lockdown the more effective at reducing the infection rate it will be and the shorter the time it will be necessary for it to be in place.  China is totalitarian and coercive, we are a democracy, and work by persuasion and consent. If we want to prove that our system is superior we’ve got to accept social distancing and no unnecessary journeys out of the house.  The more we flout these rules the less effective the lockdown will be and the longer it will have to last to achieve the desired result.

*******************************

No comments: