Sunday, 5 April 2020

Understanding Social Distancing Isn’t Rocket Science


by Les May

LAST week the Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, announced that for the time being the jury system for trials would be suspended and that for an indeterminate period trials would be conducted in the absence of a jury and the presiding judge alone would decide the innocence or guilt of the accused.

Sturgeon rescinded her decision after protests from the Scottish Judiciary and members of her own party.

South Korea was very successful in limiting the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus which is the causal agent of the disease Covid19.  This was done by first identifying those suffering the disease and then tracking the whereabouts of those they had been in contact with by locating their mobile phone.  This is possible because as people move around their phone automatically latches onto the mast transmitter with the strongest signal and vice versa.  The technology is the same as that used by the Dutch to determine that the missile used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was moved from Russia.


Germany has been using similar technology as part of its strategy for limiting the spread of the virus.

Trial by jury is the cornerstone of the English and Scottish legal system and the implications for civil liberties of suspending it, potentially indefinitely, are obvious, which is why suspension was roundly condemned.

It may be possible to justify tracking people using their mobile phone signal in order to limit the spread of a deadly virus.  How do we ensure that its use will be discontinued after the pandemic is over?  If we cannot, there are clear implications for civil liberties.

These are serious issues and deserve serious consideration and debate.  They are not getting it.   Instead we have whingeing about examples of heavy handed policing and nit picking about what the word ‘unwisely’ might be interpreted to mean.


During the afternoon today the couple who live in the house behind me invited someone round for a friendly drink.  Unwise?  Yes!  By being in the company of a third person they were increasing the probability of introducing the virus into their household.  Conversely she was running the risk of catching it from them. Infected people show no symptoms for three to five days initially and are shedding virus particles throughout this time.  There’s no certainty in any of this.  Social distancing is a matter of reducing the probability that in any encounter one or other of the participants will be infected with the virus and pass it on to someone else.  Ignoring it is anti-social.

It’s not ‘rocket science’ to understand that if each infected person on average passes the virus to more than one person, the number of people infected will increase.  If on average they pass it on to just one person the number of people infected will remain constant and if they pass it on to less than one person the number of infections will decline to zero.

Scotland’s chief medical officer Catherine Calderwood does stupid things does not mean the rest of us have to do the same.


You might get a chuckle out of this link, but notice how readily she falls into the same trap of identity politics herself.

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