SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST:
Time for Beijing to rethink Hong Kong script after pan-democrat landslide, Chinese analysts say
- The results of the district council elections will boost the power of the non-establishment camp and possibly influence the race for the city’s leader, observers say
- A central government official agreed that Beijing was surprised by the landslide win for the pan-democrats
The results of
on Sunday were worse than expected and Beijing should start considering how the outcome will affect the 2022 race for the city’s chief executive, mainland specialists on Hong Kong affairs have warned.
on Sunday were worse than expected and Beijing should start considering how the outcome will affect the 2022 race for the city’s chief executive, mainland specialists on Hong Kong affairs have warned.
“Beijing
was psychologically prepared, but it did not expect [that the
pro-establishment camp] would suffer such a severe defeat,” Wuhan
University law professor Qin Qianhong said.
A central government official agreed that Beijing was surprised by the landslide win for the pan-democrats.
“We
know it was going to be a tough fight as some pro-establishment
candidates said they faced verbal abuse when they walked the district,
but the number of seats [the pro-establishment camp] won was below our
expectation,” he said.
A
record 2.9 million voters, representing 71.2 per cent of the registered
electorate, cast their ballots in the weekend polls, up from 47 per
cent in the 2015 district council election and 58.3 per cent in the 2016
Legislative Council election.
The pan-democrat camp won 392 of the 452 seats to control 17 out of the city’s 18 district councils.
The
results mean the pan-democrats look set to take up all the 117 seats
for district councillors in the 1,200-member Election Committee that
selects the chief executive.
Tian
Feilong, an associate professor at Beihang University’s law school in
Beijing, said that as a last resort Beijing could exercise its right to
refuse the appointment of an “unacceptable” chief executive candidate.
“[The results] will boost the direct or indirect political power of those not in the pro-establishment camp,” Tian said.
“[But] if a candidate that is not acceptable to Beijing has emerged, Beijing would not appoint them.”
Qin agreed that the Basic Law gave Beijing the power to turn down undesirable candidates, but that there were risks.
“The result could be another massive street movement,” he said.
Li
Xiaobing, a Nankai University academic specialising in Hong Kong
politics, said it would be a concern if pan-democrats allied with
different sectors in the Legco and chief executive races over the next
few years.
“If it was just a few people, then it is easy to handle. But now they have formed a group and become a power,” Li said.
“If
they join hands not only among themselves but with different sectors,
then it would have … an impact on the Legco and chief executive
elections. Beijing would have to address it with countermeasures.”
The
pro-establishment bloc ended up with about 40 per cent of the votes on
Sunday but an additional 800,000 voters turned out on the weekend,
compared to the 2016 Legislative Council elections, and more than half
of them voted for the pan-democrats.
“The
election has polarised politics in Hong Kong. It has forced those in
the middle to take sides. I think most of these people opted to take the
extreme side [of pan-democrats who did not denounce the radical
protesters]. It is a big political lesson,” Tian said.
In
their campaigns, the pro-establishment bloc promoted the need for
stability and a return to social order after more than five months of
protests in the city but the strategy appeared to have little impact on
the new voters.
“Hundreds
of thousands of young people were new registered voters … These people
were those affected the most by what happened in the past five months,”
Nanjing University law professor Gu Su said.
Gu said Beijing might now have to agree to chief executive nominations that were acceptable to both camps.
Song
Sio-chong, a professor at the Centre for Basic Laws of Hong Kong and
Macau at Shenzhen University, said many middle-class people who did not
vote in the past also came out to support the pan-democrats this time.
“This
election is entirely politicised and there was no mention of community
affairs. It prompted the middle class, who were sympathetic to the
democrats, to vote. The extensive work by the pro-establishment camp at
the community level in the past has become ineffective. What should we
do next? It is a big question,” Song said.
He said Beijing should reconsider its strategy and give the pro-establishment parties more flexibility.
“A
major reason for the defeat of the pro-establishment is that it was
tied to the Hong Kong government in the anti-extradition bill campaign.
There was not enough room for the pro-establishment camp to have its
narrative and to respond. They could only respond passively in line with
the government’s position.”
Gu
agreed. “The way the pro-establishment camp supported the government
was too direct. Some changes are expected in their relations with the
Hong Kong government.”
Pro-Beijing camp’s landslide loss in district council elections ‘a chance for reflection’ on Hong Kong
- Commentators in mainland China say the poll might kick-start some deeper thinking on public opinion and the central government’s approach to the city
- High-profile tabloid accuses the West of helping opposition forces in the race
Prominent mainland Chinese commentators called for reflection on Beijing’s handling of Hong Kong after the
in local elections on the weekend.
in local elections on the weekend.
Hong
Kong’s district council elections are traditionally low-key events to
choose representatives for community office, but Sunday’s poll was seen
as a de facto referendum on more than five months of
that have gripped the city.
that have gripped the city.
The
pro-democracy camp, defined by their general support for the protests,
won control of 17 out of the 18 district councils, all of which
previously had a pro-establishment majority.
Beijing
has accused the West, especially the United States and “opposition
parties and politicians” in Hong Kong, of fuelling protests triggered by
a now withdrawn extradition bill that have since developed into calls
for democratic reforms and an investigation into police use of force
against the protesters.
Mei
Xinyu, an economist affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce, said on
Monday morning that “the landslide defeat in the Hong Kong district
council elections could be a good thing if it resulted in deep
reflection”.
“The
mess in Hong Kong and a big defeat in the district council elections
will hopefully kick-start rumination on its own Zunyi Conference,” Mei
said in an online post, referring to a meeting of Communist Party
leaders in 1935 that resulted in a personnel reshuffle and endorsed Mao
Zedong’s leadership of the party and military.
In an opinion piece published after the election results, state tabloid Global Times said the outcome should not be understood as a sign of support for “mobs”.
“It
is both inconceivable and totally impossible that most Hongkongers
would encourage violence, support political confrontation against the
mainland, and back the city to become a bridgehead for US political
forces to pressure China,” the article said.
But it also accused “Western forces” of backing the opposition in the elections.
“It
must be pointed out that the West has been helping the Hong Kong
opposition in district council elections in the past week,” it said.
The article cited various overseas media reports last week as evidence of that help, including reports that
, a former employee of the British consulate in Hong Kong, claimed to have been tortured during 15 days of detention on the mainland amid the protests.
, a former employee of the British consulate in Hong Kong, claimed to have been tortured during 15 days of detention on the mainland amid the protests.
It also referred to Australian media reports about
, who claimed he was a mainland spy but was described by Shanghai police as a fraud.
, who claimed he was a mainland spy but was described by Shanghai police as a fraud.
urged pro-Beijing supporters not to be discouraged by the results, saying they should see them “as a foundation for the country to face the practical issues in Hong Kong and a focus to improve future work”.
“With
the country so strong, the happenings in Hong Kong will not turn things
upside down … staying united is most important,” Hu said.
As the ballot count continued into Monday morning, influential mainland commentator
compared the elections in Hong Kong to a “referendum”, calling it “the only credible opinion poll”.
compared the elections in Hong Kong to a “referendum”, calling it “the only credible opinion poll”.
“Both
the pro-establishment and pro-democracy camps have been politicising
the elections, asking people to vote to have their voice heard on the
political unrest … All parties [in Hong Kong] are driving people to vote
in the ‘referendum’,” Ren wrote on his Chairman Rabbit WeChat account.
Ren, who has more than a million followers on Weibo, is regarded as very influential among Chinese officials.
“Hong
Kong has been lacking a credible opinion poll, there has not even been a
credible exit poll, so presumably both camps have no clear
understanding of the election results and need to understand public
opinion through this election,” he said, adding it would be necessary to
study the demography of voting results.
Ren has published frequently on Hong Kong with a hawkish view towards the protesters.
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