Will the Tories win in Rochdale?

FORMER police and crime commissioner, Tony Lloyd, the current Labour candidate for Rochdale, has said that residents in Rochdale have told him:
'They want a serious MP who puts the town and people first. They want an MP who has the ability and experience to get things done.
'They want an MP who will push the town forward, not pull it down.'

 Mike Joslin on the 'Writeyou' Blog wrote about the choice of Tony Lloyd for Rochdale on 2nd, May:
'...there is a real risk that a non-local candidate could lose the seat if Simon Danczuk runs as an independent.  I was a Labour Party Organiser in the North West at the 2010 General Election and worked with Simon.  The seat is the type of place that cares whether there is a local candidate or not and very traditional liberal with a small L. From personal experience the seat will be challenging.

'According to another leading local Labour source, “Local candidate matters a lot there.  Whatever you think of Simon, he's very well known and strongly associated with area”.  The source added, “Strong feeling in Rochdale that a Leaders Office parachute could lose the seat against Simon.  That's actually a big risk for leaders office as it would all be blamed on them”.'

According to 'Ratbiter' in Private Eye 'Traditionally Labour leaders have used seats where MPs retire at the last minute [or as with Danczuk in Rochdale are denied the right to stand] have used these seats as safe havens for their cronies - but this time Watson and the unions carved them up instead.'

Edward Morissette commenting on the Labour List Blog some three weeks ago analysed the position in Rochdale:                 
'This is already a tricky seat.  If the Tories hoover up most of the UKIP vote (very possible) and the Lib Dems get some of the vote back they lost 2 years ago (also possible) then its already very tight between Labour and the Tories.  It only needs Danczuk to get, say, 4000 votes to hand it to the Tories.'

Not since lieutenant-colonel Wentworth Schofield who died almost 60-years ago in December 1957, has Rochdale had a conservative M.P.   That was a time when Rochdale still had large numbers of cotton mills, and Wentworth Scholfield had helped to formed the Manchester Yarn Spinners' Association and was a committee member of the Oldham Master Cotton Spinners' Association and the Federation of Master Cotton Spinners' Association, as well as acting as secretary to a cotton trade association.

It will certainly shake things up if Rochdale turns blue again after all these years.

www.writeyou.co.uk/tony_lloyd_running_for_rochdale