Monday, 18 April 2016

Deloitte Monday Briefing:

Brexit and European politics
* The "What the UK Thinks: EU Poll of Polls", based on the average share of the vote for 'Leave' and 'Remain' in the six most recent polls carried out between 29th March and 12th April shows the Leave and Remain votes still tied on 50% (adjusting for the removal of "don't knows")
* According to the latest political betting odds cited by PaddyPower, there is currently a 35% implied probability of Brexit – unchanged from last week
* The IMF warned that Britain's economy will suffer, as will other countries, if the UK votes to leave the EU
* Additional spending on the refugee crisis will mean that Germany's fiscal surplus will halve this year, from €21.2bn to €11bn, according to analysis by the German Ifo Center 
* The Swedish Prime Minister, Stefan Lofven, blamed the migrant crisis in Europe for his party's low approval ratings at a time when the economy is growing at 4.5% and unemployment is at its lowest since the financial crisis
* Ahead of a visit to the UK this week by Barack Obama, the White House issued a statement to say that the British economy will be weaker and its international influence reduced if it votes to leave the EU
* London Mayor Boris Johnson responded that "it is plainly hypocritical for America to urge us to sacrifice control — of our laws, our sovereignty, our money and our democracy — when they would not dream of ever doing the same."
* Research by three British academics claims the UK could vote to leave the EU despite a majority of the electorate being in favour of remaining, because of an "enthusiasm gap" between the rival camps and the likelihood Brexit supporters are more committed voters 
* The chief executive of Deutsche Bank warned that London will lose its lucrative position as the main hub for trading European sovereign debt and currencies if it voted to leave the EU
* David Miliband, former Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, warned that the UK voting to leave the EU would be "an act of arson on the international order"
* A new poll for The Times shows that public trust in David Cameron has fallen eight points to 21% since February, with Jeremy Corbyn overtaking him on 28% in the wake of the 'Panama Papers' controversy - dealing a potentially significant blow to the Remain campaign
* The UK arm of the German industrial conglomerate, Siemens, issued a statement to its employees detailing the benefits to the company of the UK's continuing membership of the EU.

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