Query for Prof. Oswald on Lockdown & Restrictions

TODAY in the Financial Times Peter Cave writes a letter in reply to Pro. Andrew Oswald*:

'Professor Andrew Oswald asks for a cost-benefit analysis of the virus inspired restrictions, taking into account wellbeing and intergenerational unfairness (letters, November 3). That request raises two questions.

'First, how do you do a cost-benefit analysis of wellbeing and fairness? Many of the vulnerable and elderly underwent war and postwar deprivations that that would horrify many of today's young. How will analysts take such lack of wellbeing and unfairness into account?

'Secondly, while analysts analyse away, what should be done right now? Sheild the elderly and vulnerable? Leave other lives unrstricted? They forget that many elderly sweep the streets, clean the hospitals and work in factories: some are well-trained carers, nurses and doctors. Who would do their jobs? Further, many live in crowded multigenerational housing, unsheided.

'I conclude that we are back to medical and care services, underfunded for years, lacking capacity to deal with the many increasing Covid and non-Covid demands, unless restrictions are imposed. No cost-benefit analysis can magically show that conclusion to be false.'

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* Pro. Oswald wrote a paper entitled 'The Case for Releasing the Young from Lockdown: A Briefing Paper for Policymakers'::

"The UK is ‘locked down’ because of coronavirus (COVID-19). No clear exit strategy currently exists. This paper suggests a possible way forward that combines elements from economics and epidemiology. The paper proposes as a policy a ‘release’ from lockdown of the young cohort of UK citizens aged between age 20 and 30 who do not live with parents.

"The paper calculates that there are approximately 4.2 million UK individuals who fall into this 20-30 age-band and who live outside the original parental home. Of those, 2.6 million work in the private sector, so unless some corrective action is taken they are likely to be extremely harshly affected, financially, when compared to employees in the public sector.

"The paper argues that a young-workforce release of this kind would lead to substantial economic and societal benefits without enormous health costs to the country. In this way, the nation might begin to move forward in the footsteps of the young."

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