Wednesday, 14 October 2020

Covid 19: Pandemic Or Endemic? by Les May

THIS morning a ‘Lidl Weekly’ brochure dropped through my door telling me all the wonderful offers available in Lidl stores between 15 and 21 October. It’s just the most recent of a line of similar brochures from different retailers stretching back to long before the world had heard of Covid 19 or Donald Trump. In every case the intention of whoever promoted it, was to shape, change, manipulate, choose your favourite epithet, my behaviour so that I would spend some money with them. Before every election what drops through my door are leaflets, not asking me to spend money, but to buy into the policies promoted by one or other of the parties. So it would seem that our politicians realise that if you want to influence someone’s behaviour mailshots are quite an effective way of doing so. Or do they?
Yesterday morning I watched Robert Jenrick, Secretary of State for Housing Communities and Local Government, being asked about the new ‘Three Tier’ restrictions proposed by the Government which it hopes will suppress the dangerous rise in new infections, hospital admissions and deaths resulting from the Covid pandemic. How are we to find out which ‘tier’ we are in? Go to www.gov.uk says Mr Jenrick, and find out for yourself!
One of the things we have learned in recent months is that there has been a decline in the willingness of some people to comply with what is expected of them. Only one fifth to one quarter of people who are told they should self isolate after being in contact with an infected person, actually do so. It’s not clear that everyone even knows what ‘self isolate’ actually means.
A frequent excuse for non-compliance with this and other restrictions is that people don’t know what the ‘rules’ are. Personally I put much more reliance on the World Health Organisation’s common sense rules like meeting as few people as possible, keeping as far away as possible from anyone I do meet and disinfecting anything anyone else might have touched, to protect my wife and myself, rather than anything the government tells me. But common sense seems to be in short supply in some quarters
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Unless the government makes an effort to cut through the fog of confusion and excuses the new ‘Three Tier’ system will not work. Restrictions like those proposed will be viewed as a massive inconvenience to many people, perhaps especially to those who feel they are a least risk of picking up the virus or becoming seriously ill if they do get it. So why expect them to go out of their way to find out for themselves just how much freedom of action they are about to lose?
My understanding, gleaned from news reports is that Rochdale, as part of Greater Manchester, is in ‘Tier Two’. Telling people to find out for themselves what the new restrictions are by visiting the web sites of national and local government seems to me a recipe for failure. Some people cannot and some people will not do it.
Since March my criticism of the government’s strategy of been restrained, not because I particularly like what it has been doing, but because I am sceptical that anyone else would have been able to do much better.
But all along it seems to have been ‘penny wise and pound foolish’. It has relied too much on technology because it appears to be a cheap short cut to getting things done. We’ve had the fiasco of the ‘world beating app’, when the money might have been better spent on old fashioned shoe leather and door to door methods of tracing contacts. Telling people to go to a website to find out the rules in their area is just another example of this.
Starmer and Johnson may spar across the floor of the Commons, each claiming they know how to cut down the number of new infections. Neither seems to have paused to reflect upon the fact that this virus is not going to go away. It is going to be with us for the foreseeable future and possibly forever. If that pessimistic assessment is correct then we have to learn to live with it by changing our behaviour to accommodate that fact.
If we are to live anything like a normal life again we have to make doing the things that will keep the virus in check, and ourselves and others safe, second nature. By not doing this we have squandered all the effort and inconvenience that was needed in Spring to get the virus under control.
As I pointed out in an article on the NV blog on 16 August the number of cases was already beginning to rise again. Instead of delaying taking action until something as drastic as a ‘circuit breaker lockdown’ was needed, the time could have been better spent in reminding everyone that public health measures like physical distancing, mixing with as few people as possible, wearing a face mask when inside buildings with people not of your household and scrupulous hand washing, were still important.
The virus is apolitical; Labour or Tory it can kill you if you become infected. Starmer and Johnson need to stop playing politics and start to look at how we can avoid once more squandering the effort and inconvenience which will be needed to bring the virus under control
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Though I take much the same view as the economist J. K. Galbraith, that advertising is just another way of boosting consumption, hence profits, by creating demand where none would otherwise exist, it may be just what the government needs to turn to, to get the public health message across.
Seven weeks ago on 27 August I wrote something on the NV blog with specific reference to Rochdale Council, but the same applies to the government:
‘These are irksome things to do for most of us. We’ve a devil dancing on our shoulder telling us to just get on with our lives. We need constant reminders as to why these things are important. It’s got to be Education, Education, Education! A nd this is where I think Rochdale Council has failed miserably because it is "just going through the motions". Where are the large notices on every lamp post and every shop window and every billboard, reminding people of what they need to do to beat the virus? Non-existent so far as I can tell.’
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