by Les May
IN the period between 2* July and 12 August there were 30,041 new infections reported by the government. The average number of infections per day was 733. If the number of new infections was more or less stable we would expect there to be an equal number of days with above the average number of infections in the first half of this period and in the second half of this period. In fact there were just three days with above the average number of infections in the first half 3 July to 22 July. In the second half 24 July to 12 August there were 17 days. The middle day of the period, 23 July, there were above the average number of new infections. The total number of Covid19 deaths in this period was 2395. This figure is almost 8% of the number of new infections reported.*
If the average number of new infections remained at 733 per day, by Christmas we can expect there to be about 96,000 new infections reported in total which may translate into another 7,200 deaths.
The figures above are predicated on an unchanging rate of new infection. But if one compares new infections figures between the first (3 to 22 July) and the second half (24 July to 12 August) it is clear that the average daily rate has changed from 631 to 833. In other words the daily number of new Covid19 infections is rising again.
It is the rate at which the numbers are rising which is important not the actual numbers. So long as the rate of change is in the so called ‘linear phase’ this can be classed as (very) unfortunate; if it enters the so called ‘exponential phase’ this will be a disaster because we will have a rerun of what we experienced in late March and April, and we can kiss goodbye to Christmas.
If we are going to learn to live with the virus and not just watch others die with the virus we need to change what we are doing and become more proactive. Getting rid of the virus, before it gets rid of us, isn’t ‘Boris’s problem’, it’s our problem too.
Doing whatever is necessary to halt Covid19 infections would have another beneficial effect. The methods which are effective in reducing the likelihood of becoming infected against Covid19 are the ones which are effective in reducing the likelihood of becoming infected with Influenza. And we may just need them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
*My choice of start date was not arbitrary, it was the first day of the government’s updated method of reporting new infections and close to the day on which most meeting places were reopened.
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