by
Les May
IN
the 2016 referendum I voted that the United Kingdom should remain
a member of the European Union (EU). I assumed that if a
majority of people voted like I did the result would be honoured.
Even though the outcome was not what I would have wished I believe
that the result should be honoured and the UK should leave the EU
in accordance with the expressed wish of the majority of the people
who voted.
The
ONLY
question on the ballot paper was about the continued membership of
the UK in the EU.
There were NO
questions about immigration, the European Court of Justice, the
Common Fisheries Policy, the Common Agricultural Policy or indeed
ANY
of the myriad things which are
claimed to have been an expression of ‘the
will of the people’
by what former
Tory politician Chris Patten has called the ‘Maoist
Tendency’ of his
party. Patten meant
by this members of the European
Research Group (ERG),
one of two publicly
funded services
maintained for Conservative MPs. The
public funding has been to the tune of more than a quarter of a
million pounds since 2010.
Is
it not remarkable that ‘the will of the people’ just
happens to coincide with the wish list these MPs have drawn up and
which they want to foist on the rest of us? They make their claims
about knowing why people voted in 2016 because they think they have a
right to shape the nature of the future relationship of the United
Kingdom with the European Union. The outcome of the 2016 referendum
DID NOT give them a mandate to do this because there were no
questions about it on the ballot paper.
If
you doubt what I said in the last paragraph you might like to note
that the 116 Tory MPs who voted against Theresa May in last week’s
leadership ballot did so because they did not like the nature of the
future relationship with the European Union, NOT because she
had declined to implement the outcome of the Referendum. Like one or
two Labour politicians they have persistently conflated the question
of being a member of the EU with the question of our future
relationship with it. These questions need to be separated.
The
Referendum told us how the first of these questions should be
answered i.e. we should leave the EU. It did NOT tell us HOW
the second question should be answered.
For
the past two years the people who have monopolised discussion of the
second question have been that same ‘Maoist Tendency’ of
the Tory party. Theresa
May’s policy throughout has
been to produce a solution which would placate this group. And it’s
not just May. Politicians on all sides have been behaving
like rabbits trapped in the
headlights of
the ERG’s
speeding car whilst Theresa May squawks
‘Brexit means Brexit’
from the roadside like a demented parrot,
too paralysed to make a move
towards outlining
possible alternative
models for our future
relationship with the EU
after we leave.
That
there are
alternatives is shown by the fact that parliament will not vote for
the ERG’s
‘no deal’ scenario and the ERG
will not support May’s present offering. Simply
calling for a second referendum, as
Tony Blair and Vince Cable have done, or
saying ‘all options are on the table’,
is a symptom of that
paralysis not an example of
leadership.
In
case you think I am letting Corbyn off the hook here I should make it
clear that a Labour government would face all the same problems which
are the downside of leaving the EU.
So
called ‘Labour
moderates’
like
Chuka
Umunna
have vacillated between initially toying with alternative models for
the UK’s future relationship with the EU
and now supporting a ‘people’s
vote’
which is a second referendum in all but name. The
same criticism can be made of Conservative MP Anna
Soubry.
What
is needed is a solution which honours the result of the referendum,
and which both
honours our obligations under
the British-Irish
Agreement of
10 April 1998 with regard to
Northern Ireland
and minimises the
disadvantages of not being a member of the EU.
That means frictionless
trade between Britain and the EU.
Should
you be one of the people who think there will be no disadvantages I
will mention that from 1 February 2019 Europe and Japan will be
joined in a free trade area for goods and services covering 650
million people and one third of the world’s Gross Domestic Product
(GDP).
After
we leave the EU
we will no longer be part of it. Negotiating this deal took five
years which may be a pointer to how long it will take a post EU
Britain to do likewise.
Why
I don’t want a second referendum
I
agree with Theresa May that
calling a second referendum would undermine our democracy. In my
view it would fuel the rise of right wing populism based on the
argument that an ‘elite’ had chosen to disregard the expressed
view of a majority of the people who voted in the Referendum that we
should leave the EU.
Anna Soubry
has already been subjected to this. I
repeat that there
was only
ONE
question on the ballot paper.
I
voted Remain
in the June 2016. I still believe that we would be better off
remaining as members of the EU.
I have that in common with the people who are calling for a second
referendum whether they are calling it that or giving it the more
grandiose title of ‘A People’s Vote’.
But I think they are
mistaken.
Blair,
Cable, Ummuna,
Soubry,
et al, who all
oppose the UK leaving the EU,
seem to assume that a second referendum will produce a different
result. I can see no reason to take this for granted. No
one can be sure that it would not produce the same result again,
possibly on a smaller turn out. What then?
Does
anyone seriously think that voters will be better informed than last
time? The draft Withdrawal
Agreement
being touted by Theresa May
runs to more than five
hundred pages. How many
voters are going to read and understand it? For that matter how many
MPs are going to spend their Christmas holidays reading it? Already
the ERG
has
‘helpfully’
condensed the 585 pages of the document into a handy seven (7) page
guide! Again it seems that
the ERG
are going to try to
monopolise HOW
we leave the EU,
not just whether we leave the
EU.
Nor
do I think that any consideration
has been given to what question would appear on the ballot paper.
Asking the same question as in 2016 simply looks like an attempt to
gerrymander the ballot. It says ‘we’ll keep you
voting until you come up with the right answer’.
So
how about if the question is ‘May’s deal or
no deal’?
That’s just as bad because it precludes any of the alternatives
which I, and
others, would
find more acceptable than either option.
My
biggest objection is to those MPs who want a ‘A
People’s Vote’
because they do not think there is any outcome which a simple
majority of MPs would vote for.
My
answer to these MPs
is, ‘You lot got us into this mess, so you can
get us out of it. It’s your job to collectively
explore the options which will both respect the vote to leave the EU
and minimise
the disadvantages of not being a member of the EU.
Ensuring that the UK honours
its obligations under the
British-Irish Agreement of
1998 is a
job for Parliament not for the voters.
In other words show some leadership’.
Respecting
the vote and minimising the disadvantages
The
European Free Trade Area (EFTA)
and the European Economic Area
(EEA) are
not synonymous, but they are linked. Both are outside the EU,
both
are trading partnerships
and
neither are ‘political
projects’
demanding ever closer political integration.
Membership
of EFTA
would deliver four things on
the ERG
wish list;
withdrawal from the EU, no common
fisheries
policy,
no common
cgricultural
policy
and the right to enter
into bilateral third-country arrangements.
EFTA
does
not issue legislation, nor does it establish a customs union.
Membership
of EEA
would additionally allow access to the Internal Market of the EU.
Specifically
excluded from the EEA
relationship with the EU
are:
common
agricultural
and fisheries policies, customs union, common trade policy, common
foreign and security policy, justice and home affairs, direct and
indirect taxation and economic and monetary union. Joining
would
require
a continued contribution to the EU,
albeit a smaller one resulting in a saving of 12 to 25%, and
acceptance of the free
movement of goods,
capital, services and labour. Norway
thinks these are a price worth paying.
I
repeat what I have said several times before. The ONLY
question on the Referendum ballot paper was
about
whether we wished to remain in the EU.
The
EFTA/EEA
option delivers not only leaving the EU
but many of the other things on the ERG
‘wish list’ which are claimed to be ‘the
will of the people’.
If
indeed Labour’s policy is ‘If
we cannot get a general election, Labour must support all options
remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote… ’
then
the EFTA/EEA
option has to be on that table.
A
customs union, which seems to be
Corbyn’s
preferred
option would only cover goods not services.
What
it does not deliver is an end to immigration. Some
Labour MPs, e.g. Caroline
Flint,
are happy to set this demon loose, albeit
indirectly.
Flint
was very careful in her choice of words, but it is clear that whoever
posted her exchange with Anna
Soubry
on YouTube thought she meant immigration and immigrants. She
should be warned that in my part of the world the word ‘immigrant’
is
frequently taken to mean Pakistanis, many of whom have lived here all
their lives.
Instead
of asking for a re-run of the Referendum or ‘A
People’s Vote’
the
MPs who recognise that leaving the EU
will bring with it significant disadvantages need to press for wide
public discussion of the options open to us which both honour the
expressed wish of those who voted to leave the EU
and minimise the damage from doing so.
A
good start would be to say loud and clear that Theresa May’s
primary objective for the past two years has been to appease the ERG
by
acting as if the Referendum gave her a mandate to deliver all the
things on their wish list even though they had never been voted upon.
At
some time in the not too distant future Labour has to face the fact
that whilst its policy of accepting the result of the Referendum but
not committing itself to any definite proposals for the future has
been shrewd, putting
its faith in winning a vote of no confidence with
seemingly no other alternatives being
considered may be reckless given the time frame.
If
Labour fails
to win
a no confidence vote and
get
a general election then
I think the Corbyn project would be finished.
If
Labour
wins
it, then
wins the election which follows
and forms a government before 29 March, it will
find itself presiding over a chaotic mess.