Would You Adam And Eve It?

by Les May

THOSE of us who had the benefit of a ‘Good Sunday School Education’ are familiar with the story of Adam and Eve.  You remember the one, Adam picks fruit from the forbidden tree, God gets grumpy and banishes the pair of them from the Garden of Eden.

Christians interpret this as ‘mankind’s fall from grace’; I interpret as, ‘when you are in the deep doo-doo look around for someone else to blame’; Adam blamed Eve, Eve blamed the Serpent.  No one said, ‘you’ve got me bang to rights Gov, I done it’. And that’s the story of mankind in a nutshell!

The latest example of this is Michael Gove blaming China for failing to curb the spread of the SARS-Cov-19 virus which causes the disease Covid19.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-michael-gove-china-wuhan-covid-19-pandemic-a9432496.html

So do Gove’s comments stand up to close scrutiny or are they best interpreted as an attempt to deflect from the fact that his government was unprepared for any kind of health crisis?

This is what the World Health Organisation (WHO) had to say in it’s first Situation Report published on 21 January 2020:

On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. From 31 December 2019 through 3 January 2020, a total of 44 case of patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. During this reported period, the causal agent was not identified.

On 11 and 12 January 2020, WHO received further detailed information from the National Health Commission China that the outbreak is associated with exposures in one seafood market in Wuhan City.

The Chinese authorities identified a new type of coronavirus, which was isolated on 7 January 2020.

On 12 January 2020, China shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus for countries to use in developing specific diagnostic kits.

From 3 January Thailand and South Korea introduces screening measures for travellers from parts of China. On 9 March The Independent was reporting that travellers from Italy entering the UK from Italy faced “zero checks” for coronavirus at the airport.  At this time 16 million people, a quarter of the population were under ‘lockdown’, there were more than 7000 cases and the death toll was 366.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-italy-flight-uk-quarantine-gatwick-heathrow-airport-a9387072.html

As I pointed out in my article of 15 March the story from the government is that they are going to do something ‘when they get round to it’.

http://northernvoicesmag.blogspot.com/2020/03/we-have-cunning-plan.html

Gove is trying to fool us into thinking that he can shift the blame for the shambolic situation with regard to personal protective equipment for NHS workers, the lack of testing for infection, the lack of critical care beds and shortage of ventilators, away from the government.  We all know that China initially suppressed news of the seriousness of the disease inside the country, but as we see above cases were reported to the WHO from 31 December 2019 onwards.

It beggars belief that Public Health England and the Chief Medical Officer were not monitoring the Situation Reports from the WHO and passing on to government ministers advice as to how this infection could spread in the UK. The inaction after the first of these on 21 January is down to political decisions taken by this government. 

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Lord Sumption slams Derbyshire police for 'disgraceful' behaviour!

Lord Sumption - Supreme Court Judge, 2012-2018

A FORMER Supreme Court Judge has accused Derbyshire Police of 'disgraceful behaviour' for the way in which, they have approached restrictions on public movement, during the 'lockdown' over the Coronavirus epidemic.

Lord Sumption, who was a Supreme Court Judge between 2012-2018, told Radio 4's World At One, that the use of drones by Derbyshire Police to film walkers in the Peak District was "disgraceful" and "Shamed our policing traditions." He likened Derbyshire Police's approach to the restrictions on public movement, as akin to living in a "a police state."

The force was heavily criticised after posting some of the footage on social media last week.  Derbyshire Police said they had deployed drones in the Peak District following "public outrage" when crowds defied government advice to stay indoors and that their actions, were in line with national government advice.

But Lord Sumption, told World At One, that their efforts to dissuade people from "travelling to take exercise in the open country" were excessive.  He said such behaviours "are not contrary to the regulations simply because ministers have said that they would prefer us not to."  He added:

"The tradition of policing in this country is that policemen are citizens in uniform, they are not members of a disciplined hierarchy operating just at the government's command...The police have no power to enforce ministers' preferences but only legal regulations which don't go anything like as far as the government's guidance."

Although Derbyshire Police have said they were acting in accordance with government advice on overcrowding and "echoed what people in our communities were saying", Lord Sumption said that the efforts to dissuade people from "travelling to take exercise in the open country" were excessive.  He told the Radio 4 programme:

"I have to say that the behaviour of Derbyshire Police in trying to shame people into using their undoubted right to travel to take exercise in the country and 'wrecking beauty spots' in the fells so people don't want to go there is frankly disgraceful...This is what a police state is like. It's a state in which the government can issue orders or express preferences with no legal authority and the police will enforce ministers' wishes. I have to say that most police forces have behaved in a thoroughly sensible and moderate fashion. Derbyshire Police have shamed our policing traditions."

In response to the criticism of "wrecking beauty spots" by dyeing the water at the Blue Lagoon near Buxton, Derbyshire Police said the tactic had "been deployed since 2013" and had received "high levels of local public support."

Since the lockdown measures were introduced in March, there have been questions asked about whether the actions of the police are in accordance with the currant law or whether their actions are of dubious legality, and merely arbitrary. Evidently, Lord Sumption, a former Supreme Court Judge, believes that Derbyshire Police have overstepped the mark and have acted in a way that exceeds their powers and that they are merely enforcing "ministers' preferences," and not the current law.  He argues that the public have an "undoubted right" to travel to the country and that this is "not contrary to the regulations."

What seems to have complicated matters is that the police now seem to have introduced this idea that there is some kind of difference between "essential and non-essential activity" which implies some kind of illegality, and it is highly questionable, as to whether this dichotomy,  has any basis in current English law or makes any sense at all.  For instance, is it non-essential activity, to take your dog or goat for a walk, or go for a jog, or have a walk, or ride your bicycle, or take your kids out for a walk to the local park?

In my view, any response to fighting this virus should be proportionate and applied with common sense.  If you want people's co-operation, you won't get it by alienating people or getting their backs up. That will only lead to a backlash. Hopefully, with the co-operation of the British people, we will get to grips with this virus and get life back to normal as soon as possible.

Following recent criticism, the government have now called on police forces to be 'consistent' on lockdown powers.

 

Former Labour Councillor Eileen Kershaw dies

by Brian Bamford
Political activist & teacher first elected as a Labour councillor in Rochdale in 1964

WHEN I first met Eileen Kershaw at her home in Whitworth,  in 2014 she hesitated before letting me in saying, with a cheeky smile and a twinkle, that she shouldn't really be letting strangers into the house. 

I was there to get an interview about the then recently published book by Simon Danzcuk and Matthew Baker 'Smile for the Camera' a post-hoc consideration of Cyril Smith's life in politics in Rochdale and beyond. 

She had served for 33 years on Whitworth town council, Rossendale council and Lancashire county council.  But she had long been associated with Labour politicians in Rochdale and had been close to Cyril Smith throughout much of his political life, even after he converted to the Liberal Party and stood as a candidate for that party in the late 1960s and became the Rochdale Liberal MP in 1972, and he kept the job until 1992 when he stood down.

I met with Eileen on several occasions after that and we discussed the difficulties relating to the contents of the Danzcuk book.  Eileen had long known David Bartlett and John Walker who in May 1979, had first published in Rochdale's Alternative Paper [RAP], the revelations about Cyril Smith's role in the management of the hostel for teenage boys at Cambridge House in Rochdale.  According to the RAP account their was strong evidence that Cyril Smith had abused his powers as secretary of the hostel.  All this was well covered at the time in Private Eye, but the Eye was significantly the only main stream publication to run the story in 1979.  Even the local press; the Rochdale Observer and the Manchester Evening News managed to look the other way.

At the time Eileen Kershaw accepted that Cyril may have behaved inappropriately at Cambridge House, but she didn't accept that the more serious claims against Cyril, who had been a governor at Knowl View, had been established.

Eileen Kershaw, was the mother of radio DJs and broadcasters Liz and Andy Kershaw, was aged 85.  The former teacher who was first elected as a Labour councillor in 1964 to represent Balderstone on the old Rochdale county borough council.

Eileen also became a governor at Knowl View*, a residential school for boys, where Cyril Smith had for a time served as a governor.  She told me that she was unaware of any untoward behavour by Cyril at the school while she was serving there as a governor.

In 2014, following the surfacing of historic reports going back to the 1990s, beginning with the events covered in the 1991 report by Phil Shepherd entitled the 'Shepherd Report' about the risk of AIDS owing the alleged sexual activity between the lads and the claim of them 'cottaging' with outsiders.   

Eileen told me that she had never cared for the then Rochdale Labour MP, Simon Danczuk, and though she considered Mr Danczuk's book 'Smile for the Camera' on Cyril Smith was 'well written in a literary sense'.  She did suggest to me, correctly as it turned out, that she didn't believe Mr. Danczuk had actually written the book himself, and she did, even then, express some doubts about some details in the contents of the book.  But later she went on to write that 'much of the content is questionable'.   And she concluded in a letter to the Rochdale Observer that 'the real aim of [Danzcuk] writing such a tome seems to be financial',

In the 1950s, I had been taught science at Brimrod Secondary Modern School by Eileen's first husband, Jack Kershaw, a fan of Rugby League, and I knew something about the family second-hand through the former editor of RAP John Walker.   We could relate to each other through those experiences and she was very keen to talk about local politics, but she described herself as having Irish blood in her veins which perhaps made her more passionate than the your average English politician. 


*   Knowl View School was a residential school for boys with emotional and behavioural difficulties that opened in 1969 and, after a period of temporary closure, closed permanently in 1996. It was built and run by Rochdale Borough Council and had a Board of Governors. The school catered for boys across an age range of 7 to 16 years old. Cyril Smith was said to have been part of a local campaign to see it established and was present at its opening.
Early research identified that a report (only publicly available in redacted form) was written in 1991 by Phil Shepherd, an employee of the Rochdale AIDS Unit, who identified the fact that boys at the school were at risk of AIDS. The report (which became known to the Inquiry as the ‘Shepherd report’ {1}) detailed concerns about sexual activity at the school, including ‘cottaging’ in and around public toilets as well as boys being forced into sex with others. The report was sent to Rochdale’s Director of Education, Mrs Diana Cavanagh. These events attracted press reporting in 1995.^[1]
In 1995, the press reported that Mrs Cavanagh had asked Mr Shepherd not to circulate his report further. Press reporting also suggested that concerns about the children living at Knowl View had first been raised by a Dr Alison Fraser, a child psychiatrist at Rochdale’s Birch Hill Hospital.  There was also speculation in the press about a report (which did not appear to have been publicly available) by Valerie Mellor, a consultant clinical psychologist, which dated back to February 1992.  It was reported that Mrs Mellor had said there was no doubt that up to a quarter of the pupils at the 48-place school had been involved in serious sexual incidents, the activity had continued over a very long period of time and it was difficult to believe that this behaviour had not come to the attention of at least some members of staff.

{1}  The Shepherd report was also sent to the acting Director of Social Services and to the then Rochdale conservative councillor, Pamela Hawton in her capacity on a relevant committee.  The Mellor report was written as a result of her being sent into the school at the instigation of Diana Cavanagh in response to the Shepherd Report.

Is Britain becoming a police state under Boris Johnson?

Police drone footage of Peak National Park

THE outbreak of Coronavirus in Britain is a serious matter, and I fully understand the need to introduce measures to contain and control the spread of the virus. Other countries in Europe and elsewhere, have introduced similar measures including the United States and Australia. But if social distancing is be enforced throughout Britain, then it must be done with proportion and common sense, and it is not clear that the British police can be trusted to do this.

Last week, I was stopped by two police officers in a van while I was walking home. They wanted to know where I had been and where I was going. I told them that I had been out shopping and had called to see a friend and that I was now making my way home. I was told that I shouldn't visit anyone at their home and that I faced imminent arrest if I didn't have a reasonable excuse for being out and about. The police officers said that this had all been ordered by the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. I was also told that I wasn't permitted time out of doors to undertake exercise. I told them that I knew nothing about these measures and that it sounded to me like we were now living in some kind of police state, in Britain. I told them that I shopped and looked after a vulnerable adult, and I was then allowed to complete my journey. A friend also told me that he'd been stopped one morning by the police while he was on his way to do shopping, while also on foot.

As I write, in the area where I live, Greater Manchester, care workers are still visiting homes, taxi drivers and bus drivers are still carrying passengers about and staff are working in the supermarkets. The dustbins are also being emptied and the post is being delivered. Currently local parks and takeaways are still open for business. Pubs, clubs and restaurants are closed but many shops and banks remain open. And yet, the police are driving about stopping people in the street to see if they've got a reasonable excuse to be out and about and are threatening to arrest people and could fine them, if they haven't. 

When the Prime Minister announced the lockdown on 23 March, he said people would only be able to leave their homes for shopping, one form of exercise a day, any medical need, or to provide care or help for a vulnerable person, or to go to work. Johnson also banned  gatherings of more than two people under the emergency measures.

So when a party of 20 people, gathered for a barbecue in Foleshill, a suburb of Coventry, after the imposition of the lockdown, they were shocked when local police - who'd smelled food being cooked outside - raided the house and tipped over the grill, bringing the party, to a sudden and abrupt conclusion.  The police tweeted:

"Unbelievably, we've just had to deal with 20+ people having a BBQ!! Please listen to government advice else this will get worse and will last longer!! They finished the message, '#RIPBBQ', before attaching a photo of a tipped over grill, with abandoned sausage rolls laying on the ground.

While the actions of the Coventry police may appear to have been justified in this particular case, under the current situation, the police nevertheless, appear to be also cracking down on what is deemed 'non-essential' - and by implication illegal - activity, by the authorities. In less than a week, Britain has become something of a police state, with millions of people effectively under house arrest, and the police being given blanket powers to enforce largely arbitrary rules.

It has been reported that Derbyshire police are using drones to spy on people going on 'non-essential walks' in the Peak District National Park, during the coronavirus lockdown. A video that has been made public, shows police drone footage of unsuspecting members of the public hiking, walking their dogs and watching the sunset. All totally harmless behaviour which is now deemed 'non-essential'. Although the Peak District could hardly be more sparsely populated, and there is little danger of spreading the virus to anyone, Derbyshire Police are warning the public to stay away from the Peak District.

In other parts of the country it is being reported that police are setting up checkpoints on Britain's roads demanding to know where motorists are going. In Cornwall, police threatened to search car boots to check whether drivers were off to the seaside.  In Cumbria, the police have warned members of the public, that they risk being fined if they visit the area, warning: "The Lake District is Closed."

Silkie Carlo, the director of Big Brother Watch, said: "These are chilling powers that create a serious risk of arbitrary policing. Authorities are right to take robust measures to protect public health, but in truth the only way we can control the spead is through well-informed community co-operation, not just criminalisation. Basic safeguards are missing from these extraordinary powers and I'm afraid more draconian powers still are to come from the Coronavirus Act."

Under Boris Johnson, Britain's is creeping towards becoming a police state. Not many weeks ago, Johnson was telling us that there was nothing to worry about because everything was under control and there were contingency plans in place. It was all bollocks  as usual. They hadn't a clue. While football matches were cancelled along with other events, the Cheltenham horse-racing festival went ahead.

What Boris Johnson's Conservative government have managed to do is to panic and spook people and that's why they're panic buying in the shops and supermarkets. They should have also taken effective measures much earlier. Instead, Johnson preferred to toy with the idea of "herd immunity" -  that is letting the virus take it course to a large degree.

As for medical assistance, most of us have been thrown under a bus, because you ain't going to get any or it's going to take forever for you to get to see a doctor. The reason there are fewer deaths in Germany is because they've got a much better health care system than Britain - which has suffered from years of Tory austerity policies since 2010 - and they treat people. But you can bet your bottom dollar, that Prince Charles and Boris Johnson are getting first class medical treatment. Both of them managed to get immediately tested for the virus  when thousands including doctors are denied it. When asked why Prince Charles was able to get tested when others could not - including NHS front-line staff - Health Minister, Edward Argar, told Sky News, that the heir to the British throne's symptoms and conditions, "met the criteria."

How long this lock-down is likely to last is a moot point. Some health professionals have suggested that it might take as long as six months for Britain to get back to normal, Let's hope is doesn't take too long to get back to normal life and not too many lives are lost to the virus.

Bargaining through the Pandemic

Dear Brian,

We are dealing with an unprecedented economic situation due to COVID 19. Some employers are making quick and at times ill-informed decisions, whilst our members are rightly demanding representation in this ever changing environment.

Officers of course are dealing with the situation with our reps and in response to requests on Work, Voice & Pay I have produced guidance (click here) in the form of a template ‘Lockdown Agreement’. Of course it is understood that as workplaces are different, many Shop Stewards will want to adapt it as they see fit. This can be done easily as the draft is in Word. I will also be looking at producing further templates and guidance including for agency and casual workers.

If you need any further information, including the finances of your employer, please let me know. Employers should not be able to abdicate their responsibility and workers can’t again be made to pay the price.

Thanks,

Sharon Graham,

Executive Officer, Organising and Leverage, Unite the Union

Click here for a template Lockdown Agreement.

Germany's coronavirus infections climb but deaths remain low

 
Experts debate ‘anomaly’ as other countries record higher death rates

Experts have been debating Germany’s ‘coronavirus anomaly’, as cases continue to grow in the country but deaths caused by the virus remain low. 

Currently, Germany has confirmed over 16,000 cases of coronavirus infections among its citizens – the virus which causes the respiratory disease COVID-19.
Although the virus is spreading fast within the country, the confirmed number of deaths has remained low – standing at 44, according to data from John Hopkins University.

In comparison to the UK, which has far fewer confirmed cases – just over 2,500 – the number of deaths of individuals who tested positive for the virus is 138, more than in Germany.

The disparity between Germany’s confirmed cases and death rate has left experts trying to explain why some countries have lower case numbers but higher deaths than the country, including France and the US.

Some have attributed the low death rate to the high level of testing in the country, with Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, revealing that German laboratories are undertaking approximately 160,000 test per week.
That is well above the number of tests being carried out in other countries in Europe and around the world. The high level of testing allows for the identification of individuals who have little to no symptoms, and hence have a higher chance of survival.

Also, Germany’s confirmed cases are more likely to reflect the true number of infections because of this widespread testing, compared to other countries where the confirmed cases likely do not reflect the real picture of the virus’ spread.

So far, the majority of those confirmed to have the contracted the virus in Germany are under the age of 60 – over 80% – which may also explain the low death rate.

“Especially at the beginning of the outbreak in Germany, we saw many cases connected to people returning from skiing trips and similar holidays,” said Matthias Stoll, a professor of medicine at the University of Hanover, in the Financial Times.

“These are predominantly people who are younger than 80 and who are fit enough to ski or engage in similar activities. Their risk of dying is comparatively low,” he added.

Despite the relatively low levels of death in Germany, experts have warned that the country is still in the early stages of the outbreak, and the mortality rate is expected to grow.

“We are still at a relatively early stage in the outbreak in Germany. The overwhelming share of patients became infected only in the last week or two, and we will probably see more severe cases in the future as well as a change in the fatality rate,” Hans-Georg Kräusslich, a professor of medicine and the head of virology at the University Hospital in Heidelberg, told the Financial Times.

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Recycling centres & tips in Manchester to close

The centres will remain closed ‘until further notice’ - 

Recycle for Greater Manchester announced

It means that places like recycling centres will not remain open.
An announcement was made on the Recycle for Greater Manchester website.
It read: “Following on from the Prime Minister’s announcement on March 23, all Recycling Centres are closed until further notice. Please stay at home.”

Residents are urged to check their local council’s website for up to date information about how the announcement would impact collections from homes.

Manchester

According to the Manchester City Council website, food and garden recycling bins will be collected every two weeks instead of every week. All other collections remain unaffected.

Bolton

A post on the Bolton Council website says: “At this stage priority will be given to the collection of grey bins, food waste containers and green bins. Recycling bins will be emptied where possible so please continue to present all bins on the appropriate collection day. If your bins are not emptied please take them back onto your property until your next scheduled collection day, as we will not be able to return for any that have not been emptied.”

Bury

The Bury Council website says they are ‘unable to carry out as many collections as usual’.
It says: “Brown bin collections are cancelled this week (23-27 March) and next (30 March to 3 April) while we prioritise emptying grey, green and blue bins instead.”

Oldham

The Oldham Council website asks residents not to place any garden waste out for collection. They are urged to use green bins and caddies for food waste only.
The website adds: “Place all bins out for collection as normal. Should we not collect your bin on its scheduled collection day please take it back onto your property and put it out again on your next collection day.”

Rochdale

People in Rochdale are being urged to put out their bins as normal. “If we’re not able to collect your bin on its scheduled collection day please take it back onto your property and put it out again on your next collection day”, the website says.

Stockport

People in Stockport should put their bins out as normal.

Tameside

For information, visit https://public.tameside.gov.uk/forms/bin-dates.asp

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Reporting #COVID19 & identifying risk cases

THE message below is perfectly legit. It is a serious medical academic study designed to trace the spread of the virus.

It is precisely the kind of thing the govt should be promoting. Please support - be led by science and not bluster.

It will only take 5 mins a day to fill in. I know - where on earth are we going to find that in our busy stay at home schedules?

Keep safe. Stay well

Help slow the spread of #COVID19 and identify at risk cases sooner by self-reporting your symptoms daily, even if you feel well  🙏🏼. Download the app
https://covid.joinzoe.com/

COVID Symptom Tracker COVID Symptom tracker lets anyone healthy or with symptoms share valuable information with researchers and the NHS. Just take 1-minute to self-report daily, even if you are well, to help identify (a) How fast the virus is spreading in your area (b) High-risk areas (c) Who is most at risk, by better understanding symptoms linked to underlying health conditions. covid.joinzoe.com

Playing Russian Roulette With Workers’ Health

by Les May

UNTIL the last election my MP was Liz McInnes.  I did not always agree with her, but I thought of her as ‘one of us’.  Unlike the many MPs who get into politics through the law, business, finance, charities etc, Liz had had what many people would call ‘a proper job’ before going into politics.

One of the baffling things about the government response to the Covid19 pandemic is that building sites are being allowed to stay open. Is it, I wonder, that so many of our MPs are drawn from the ranks of those I listed above and simply don’t have any grasp of what actually happens on a building site?

Telling the us to wash our hands frequently and maintain a distance of at least 2m apart, is excellent advice for the general public, but just how do you do this on a building site?  How do you keep 2m apart when passing on scaffolding?

Workers on sites will be handling materials and tools which will have been handled by their workmates.  If one of these is infected with Covid19, not yet showing symptoms, but shedding the virus, where are the facilities for regular hand washing to prevent the virus spreading by contact?  At best lavatory facilities on building sites are often not much more than barely adequate.

Health and safety has always been a big issue in the construction industry and sometimes a source of conflict between employers and workers, sometimes leading to men being ‘blacklisted’ for drawing attention to safety issues.

By not ordering building sites to close the government is playing Russian roulette with the health of these workers and their families.  Is it possible that someone does not want to draw attention to the bogus self employed status of men working in the construction industry if the sites are closed?

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COVID-19: construction briefing – 25 March

 25 Mar 2020 By Contributor

The following briefing has been produced in collaboration between the Association for Consultancy & Engineering, Build UK, Chartered Institute of Building, CITB, Civil Engineering Contractors Association, Construction Products Association, Federation of Master Builders, and Institution of Civil Engineers, as part of a series of daily briefings designed to share consistent guidance and advice with the industry

Site Operating Procedures

The Cabinet Office has confirmed that construction in England can continue as long as it can be done safely and in accordance with the Public Health England guidance. The latest Construction Leadership Council Site Operating Procedures (SOP) align with the latest Public Health England guidance: http://www.constructionleadershipcouncil.co.uk/news/site-operating-procedures-during-covid-19/
As this guidance changes, the SOP will be updated.
If for any reason, sites and companies are not able to comply with the PHE guidance, then they must cease activities until they can.

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Bury Council Boss Gets 'Social Isolation'!

by Brian Bamford

Who Has Priority? 

 Editor:  Yesterday Joe Bailey a retired street cleansing worker, wrote to N V the following letter in which he questioned the situation for refuse workers etc. in the light of the current coronavirus:

 

'Not wishing to stick my nose where it is not wanted and I know the Coronavirus alarm has to be treated with delicate caution. Having said that, I've heard nothing from the media on bin men , postman, tip workers carrying out their duties.

'I have had a quick look at council websites re COVID-19.

Bin men do not always wear gloves (cloth or PVC) when handling bins. They have to touch the same lifting gear (buttons etc).

'Then their hands are all over the cab. The viruses have a 48 hour life span on plastic surfaces according to the BBC. Obviously I don’t have a degree in public health - but a lot of bins are not very clean – whether the scum sustains the virus is open to question – even if the handle is wiped. Also members of the public touch the bins with their bare hands. Most go out on collection day. Bin men are not insured for work on private property.

'The bin men are bunched up in the cab. Street Cleansing staff are usually in confined cabs.

'The BBC presenters sit at least a metre apart in an open atmosphere.

'I know you know all this. I will be copying this to Hazards.

'It would be good if the council published the risk assessment on their websites.'

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When we contacted the Bury binmen we got the following response from a binman at Bradley Fold Waste Depot in Bury:

Hi Brian

'We had a meeting last week outside with his Lordship (Glenn Stuart - manager at Bradley Fold Waste Depot), to which he told us that we are priority workers at bury mbc (dont know if that's his words or someone further up the line).  So for the moment its carry on as normal and come in if you feel you are not affected. We asked about social distancing (this is why he had the meeting outside)yet we were still sent out with 3 crew members in a cab!!  So once again Bury mbc are quoting the advice yet ignoring it when it comes to the bins. Dont know if things will change tomorrow will let you know. The advice from Kent council you sent me sounds good advice.  He did however (you'll like this)end the meeting by telling us that his wife suffers from auto immune disease and from Friday last week, he will be self isolating for 12 weeks!!'

Fancy that!  In't it alright for some?

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What’s An Essential Worker?

by Les May

IN the late 1940s and early 50s my dad worked for Rochdale Cleansing Department.  At different times he had three jobs; he worked ‘on the tubs’, which meant he went round the outlying districts collecting half barrel sized containers for disposal at the sewage works of what is euphemistically called ‘night soil’, he was also a road sweeper and a dustman.

Our house was filled with books which had been discarded along with the ash from coal fires, I had a rocking horse from the same sources and a large ‘tin bath’ also came his way and hung from a large nail on the backyard wall.

The clamour for diversity does not seem to stretch to waste disposal, at least in Rochdale. It’s a job which seems to be more of less exclusively the preserve of white men, and I’ve yet to hear a media feminist making a song and dance about it.  Selective outrage is the order of the day.

I was reminded of my dad when I heard the advice that anyone who could, should ‘work from home’.  We’d soon notice if our bins were not collected for three months, but who thinks of referring to ‘dustmen’ as essential workers?

We hear the news that the government is at last beginning to meet the desperate need for doctors and nurses to have the best possible personal protective equipment.  We are told to wash our hands frequently, to avoid buses, meeting friends and to keep at least two metres apart if we leave the house.

What we don’t hear is how people like dustmen are going to do any of these things. They will spend part of the day in a crowded cab travelling to the start of their round.  They’ll handle dozens of bins not knowing whether the person who put them out is suffering from Covid19, not yet showing symptoms, but infected and shedding virus particles or fit as a butcher’s dog, and each evening they will go home to their family.

At the very least they should be provided with adequate amounts of hand gel, a plentiful supply of wet wipes and anything else which might help to prevent them becoming infected with the virus causing Covid19.

There is one thing we can all do to reduce the risk of infection being passed to them. We can sterilise the handles of our bins after we put them out.  Wiping them over with a solution of one part bleach and twenty parts water (0.25% bleach) and allowing this to remain on the handles as long as possible will go a long way to doing this.

Just because you have no symptoms of Covid19 now does not mean that you are not incubating the disease.  You’ll miss your dustman if he does not call next week because he is ill. 

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Rise in page-views from the UKRAINE

Editor:  Since NV have been covering

stories about the Ukrainian Famine of

1933-4, there has been an increase in

interest from readers in that part of 

the world.  The table below shows that

in the last 24-hours it leads the page-views.

We would welcome more comments on the

consequences of the dreadful Holodomor.

Entry	Page-views
Ukraine	194
United States	116
United Kingdom	68
Germany	50
Yemen	34
Brazil	27
Italy	26
Dominican Republic	23
Argentina	22
South Africa	14

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Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson caught coronavirus!

by Brian Bamford

YESTERDAY's editorial in the Financial Times declared 'Johnson is coming to grips with the virus'.  Yet only a week ago the same FT editor had argued that 'The [then] UK approach is ... potentially more costly in human lives than strict containment measures, if the latter do succeed in stopping the virus in its tracks.'  The FT editor was concerned, a week ago, that if Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, was right in estimating a 'reasonable worst-case scenario' was that 80% of Britain's 66m people would be infected then the death toll could be 500,000 - almost doubling the UK's normal annual death rate.

Last week it also turned out that the epidemiologist Neil Ferguson had reported having a 'dry cough' and a high fever; the classic symptoms of the coronavirus.  Last Wednesday he tweeted that he felt 'a bit grotty'.

A test soon showed he had been infected by the virus he was modeling.  At this time it's a sobering thought!


Ferguson is a mathematician and an epidemiologist whose work on the spread of Covid-19 is informing policy in not only the UK but also France, the US and other countries as well.  The centre he founded with colleagues at Imperial College, the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, collaborates with the World Health Organization.

This week the massive swift shift in the UK response from essentially letting the virus spread through the population to the wholescale stay-at-home policy now in place has resulted from Ferguson’s work, supported by other modellers especially at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Ferguson has taken a lead, advising ministers and explaining his predictions in newspapers and on TV and radio, because he is that valuable thing, a good scientist who is also a good communicator.

Naturally mathematical modelling is only as good as the data fed into the computers. It was new information on the high rate of patients needing critical care in Italy and on the limited ability of the NHS to respond to the pandemic that caused Ferguson and colleagues to recommend a switch from what they called scenario 1 – mitigation – to scenario 2 – suppression of the virus, including the drastic measures that have emptied the pubs, closed theatres and is now to shut all schools.

The latest analysis comes from a team modelling the spread and impact COVID-19 and whose data are informing current UK government policy on the pandemic.

The findings are published in the 9^th report from the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London.

Professor Neil Ferguson, head of the MRC GIDA team and director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), said:
“The world is facing the most serious public health crisis in generations. Here we provide concrete estimates of the scale of the threat countries now face.
“We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures – most notably, large scale social distancing – will need to be in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes available.”

He is a workaholic, according to his colleague Christ Donnelly, a professor of statistical epidemiology based at Oxford University most of the time, as well as at Imperial.  “He works harder than anyone I have ever met,” she said.  “He is simultaneously attending very large numbers of meetings while running the group from an organisational point of view and doing programming himself.  Any one of those things could take somebody their full time.

“One of his friends said he should slow down – this is a marathon not a sprint. He said he is going to do the marathon at sprint speed. It is not just work ethic – it is also energy.  He seems to be able to keep going. He must sleep a bit, but I think not much.”

Donnelly met Ferguson when they were both working for Prof Roy Anderson’s epidemiology group at Oxford University.  Their first project together was modelling the BSE epidemic in cattle in 1996 and then the variant CJD (Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease) outbreak in humans.

They came up with an estimate that was incredibly broad for the likely number of human deaths – between 50 and 50,000 – but that was at a time when some were predicting 2 million people would be infected. There were calls for the sort of NHS resources now going into Covid-19 to be directed towards vCJD. Ferguson and Donnelly’s modelling helped defuse that. In the end the UK had about 170 cases.

Next came foot and mouth, then Sars, then pandemic influenza. With every disease outbreak, governments have turned to the modellers. While Donnelly, with her statistical training, could have had a quiet life as a researcher in the pharmaceutical industry discovering new drugs, she is instead watching the predictions she and Ferguson have made hit the headlines on the TV news. She says both of them were attracted to “high-impact” projects.
Ferguson may have the symptoms of Covid-19 but he is still working. At 9am he joined an online meeting with his colleagues as usual. The stakes are too high for somebody with his dedication and central role in the crisis to stay in bed.

Slowing and suppressing the outbreak

The report details that for the first scenario (slowing the spread), the optimal policy would combine home isolation of cases, home quarantine and social distancing of those over 70 years.  This could reduce the peak healthcare demand by two-thirds and reduce deaths by half.  However, the resulting epidemic would still likely result in an estimated 250,000 deaths and therefore overwhelm the health system (most notably intensive care units).

The world is facing the most serious public health crisis in generations. Prof. Neil Ferguson Director, J-IDEA

In the second scenario (suppressing the outbreak), the researchers show this is likely to require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members (and possible school and university closure).  The researchers explain that by closely monitoring disease trends it may be possible for these measures to be relaxed temporarily as things progress, but they will need to be rapidly re-introduced if/when case numbers rise.  They add that the situation in China and South Korea in the coming weeks will help to inform this strategy further.

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Double or Quits? The Numbers Game

by Les May

I HAVE heard the same story twice in the last two days, once repeated to me by a friend and the other today on the US Washington Journal programme on C-SPAN.

Essentially the complaint is that the dangers of the Covid19 pandemic is being exaggerated because the number of deaths so far in the UK and the US is no more than would be expected from the effects of seasonal flu.

But the people who make this argument betray a fundamental ignorance about what is important here. It’s not the actual number of infections which is important, it’s the RATE at which those numbers CHANGE. If this is known it is possible to approximately predict how many infections there will be at any time in the future unless measures are taken to prevent this happening.

One way of thinking about the rate of change is to find out how many days it takes for the number of recorded infections to double. In the UK this is estimated to be between 2 and 4 days. If we take a mid-value of three days and assume we start when the number of infections is 1000 then we can predict the number of infections in a month’s time.

Day 3: 2000, Day 6: 4000, Day 9: 8000, Day 12: 16000, Day 15: 32000,

Day 18: 64000, Day 21: 128000, Day 24: 256000, Day 24: 256000,

Day 27: 512000, Day 30: 1024000.

If the time taken for the number of infections to double is 2 days it would take three weeks for a million people to be infected; it the time to double is 4 days it would take 6 weeks to reach a million recorded infections.

The data from China suggest that the mortality rate for recorded infections is about 4%. This translates into about 40,000 deaths if we allow the number of recorded infections to reach 1 million. Note that by recorded infections I mean medically diagnosed cases and this does not include the unrecorded infections which result in self diagnosis.

Although the government have been slow to implement the measures which could help to prevent very large numbers of people being infected, they have finally done so. We have a choice; we can either accept the restrictions on how we conduct our lives for the next few months or we can ignore the advice we are given, adopt a laissez-faire attitude and suffer the consequences.

I have little doubt that if people continue to ignore the advice we have been given the government will impose more stringent measures which will be more intrusive and more restrictive than what we are being asked to do at present.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?470430-2/washington-journal-news-headlines-viewer-calls (at 22m 41s on video)

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/flattening-the-covid-19-curves/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/03/17/why-exponential-growth-is-so-scary-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus/

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